The National League Half-Term Review
NLMusings reviews all 24 National League clubs, looking at pre-season predictions, where each side finds themselves & a prediction for the rest of the campaign.
It’s a Tuesday evening in November and I’m conversing with somebody who has become a good friend.
We’re chatting about what we’re doing over the next week and I mention a piece I’m working on relating to the National League given we have a rare two-week break from action. He mentions it might be a “good time for a current state of play post”.
“If I ever get time” is the normal response.
My NLMusings page is a bit quieter than it ought to be and is probably to my detriment. I watch highlights of every game, watch as many games with my own eyes as possible, do my research for Football Manager and converse with a lot of smart cookies from all backgrounds about this division. What I lack is the time to converse and debate publicly, which means I’m quieter than some of the other brilliant accounts that cover this division.
But there was another break in the National League campaign, we’re at the halfway stage of the campaign and it’s almost Christmas. So, here’s my review of all 24 National League clubs to date.
AFC Fylde
Position: 20th
Record: Pld 23; W6 D4 L13; F28 A47 GD –19; Pts 22
Predicted position: 8th
What did I say?
I’ve had a good feeling about Fylde since the end of last season and I think they will be in the mix for a top seven finish. A lot of this comes down to Beech, who has played an important role as Director of Football and then interim manager, creating a younger, more vibrant group. The football has been simplified, the team are fearless and forward thinking and the spine of last season’s team has stayed put. I see the Coasters getting off to a strong start thanks to the energy and quality of their performances and though they may tail off, they’ve got a chance of sticking in there.
The reality is...
That I was miles off. It started well, an opening day Nick Haughton hat-trick earning three points against ten-man Solihull Moors. However, not even his star power was enough to save Beech, who was sacked after eight league games with his team sitting second bottom in the table and having conceded ten goals in a week. Defensive issues had blighted them and a side that looked so dangerous in transition following his arrival had lost much of what attracted me to Chris Beech’s AFC Fylde.
Kevin Phillips has taken on the challenge and it’s been a mixed bag. After chopping and changing early on, he has found a relatively settled starting XI and is beginning to add bodies to it. It remains heavily reliant on the quality of Haughton – he has directly contributed via goal or assist to around two-thirds of their league goals – but others are beginning to step up with Ethan Mitchell and Jon Ustabasi finding their feet again.
The issue is consistency now. Phillips stated after the Eastleigh game that his team have proven they can compete with anybody on their day and he’s not necessarily wrong – they have beaten Solihull Moors, Southend United and Gateshead this season. But they have also failed to score in six of their last 12 and have conceded 2 or more goals in eight of those. The additions of Max Bardell and Will Hugill suggest Phillips and the team behind him have an idea of what their issues are – it's all about doing as much as possible to resolve them now.
Prediction for the rest of the season
Phillips showed last season at Hartlepool United that he can organise a team and get results but the challenge is tougher here, taking on a weaker squad with less experience and with a smaller budget to work with. Their goals against record is appalling. Yet they have done the hard part, escaping the bottom four. The youthful nature of the squad means Fylde are likely to remain inconsistent and endure the defensive issues that have cost them dearly this season already, but I think they will improve enough to stay out of the bottom four come the end of the season.
Aldershot Town
Position: 19th
Record: Pld 23; W5 D8 L10; F32 A40 GD –8; Pts 23
Predicted position: 7th
What did I say?
Aldershot were a real wildcard last term, finishing 8th with a negative goal difference and sitting high in the league for goals scored, goals conceded and their disciplinary record. There’s been a decent turnover, they’ve lost some important players, are backing a number of players to step up and I can see the Shots settling down a bit. A few will step up, a few may need more time and the challenge is set for people to grow as leaders. A few less goals scored, a few less conceded and another positive campaign that sees them competing for a top seven finish.
The reality is...
Aldershot Town are still agents of chaos. This season they have drawn 3-3, won 4-1 and 4-3 and lost 3-2 (twice), 5-2 and 4-3. They have beaten Oldham Athletic and Altrincham and succumbed to Tamworth, AFC Fylde and Wealdstone. Even their goalless draws leave you confused – one against title chasing York City and another against rock bottom Ebbsfleet United.
There are few signs that the team has settled down. Only Ebbsfleet United have recorded more changes to their starting XI per game at the time of writing and the defence has been an enormous part of that, recording 32 changes to the back five in 22 matches. They have fielded the same back three for no more than three games in succession due to various factors. Then there is the club looking after the legs of Josh Barrett and 35-year-old James Henry and looking to give Jordi Van Stappershoef as many opportunities as possible despite appearing to be second choice. A lot of change.
It leaves the Shots three points above 22nd place Maidenhead United having won just five of their opening 23 league fixtures and two of their last 17. There has been minimal improvement on their away form – 1 win in 12 – and their disciplinary record continues to be amongst the poorest in the league. And despite all that, they are one of two sides in the bottom half to score more than 30 goals. Rarely a dull moment.
Prediction for the rest of the season
Aldershot Town score goals, and I think it might be enough to keep their heads above water. My belief is that while I think the Shots will continue to be one of the more entertaining sides in the division with goals for and against tallies that will rank towards the higher end of the division, they will settle a little. The first is that as form and fitness improves, combined with a number of new players having found their feet, they will chop and change less. The second is that 10 of their remaining 12 home games are against sides currently 10th or lower in the league table, including four of the five sides below them.
Altrincham
Position: 9th
Record: Pld 23; W9 D7 L7; F37 A30 GD +7; Pts 34
Predicted position: 6th
What did I say?
I found Alty difficult to predict. It’s easy to see they’ve lost Conn-Clarke and assume that’s the end of their promotion hopes but as outlined above, it’s not that simple. They remain a very strong, settled outfit that know their strengths and still contain plenty of quality in the final third. And their business isn’t done yet. The loss of Esteva and potential loss of Parkinson and Sorvel, who will no doubt be courted, is difficult to predict from the outside. I’m backing them for another top seven finish. They could probably finish anywhere in the top ten.
The reality is...
I wasn’t far wrong, but it hasn’t always felt like that. Alty have quietly gone about their business and turned an awkward start into an impressive first half of the season.
Phil Parkinson’s side lost three of their first five matches, one of which was a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of Sutton United. And they won just three of their first ten, with those coming against Woking, Maidenhead United and Ebbsfleet United, not exactly the cream of the crop. After matchday 23, they find themselves in 9th, two points off 6th and on a run of four losses in 18 while being unbeaten at home in nine, winning five and each of their last three without conceding.
Finding their touch in front of goal has been key. Alty have scored 28 goals in their last 14 matches (2 or more in nine of those) with Regan Linney pushing for the top goalscorer gong and the likes of Alex Newby and Matty Kosylo finding their way into the campaign. They are overperforming on that side of things, but their underlying numbers are improving, which makes me feel as though they will continue to be a threat in front of goal, even if a drop-off may come.
Alty and Parkinson have been at this level a long time now and showcased their ability to respond to setbacks. His team is looking more balanced and settled with key players playing their way back into fitness. Their improvement this term has been synonymous with their time in the National League as a whole, quietly getting better at key aspects of the game and climbing the table. The next stage of their promotion is to put back-to-back wins together, something they have managed just once this term.
Prediction for the rest of the season
There are plenty of reasons to feel comfortable about Altrincham and their quest for back-to-back play-off finishes – they are already in the mix and still haven’t truly hit their stride. There is some work to do defensively but they have showcased an ability to keep clean sheets and improvement in that depart will be key for the period where goals to dry up, as I anticipate. Of all the sides in the chase for a play-off spot, I feel most comfortable about Alty making it.
Barnet
Position: 2nd
Record: Pld 23; W15 D3 L5; F47 A26 GD +21; Pts 48
Predicted position: 1st
What did I say?
I’ve gone back and forth on this but as the summer has gone on, I’ve gotten more confident that Barnet will do it. Looking at the squad written down, it’s easy to get spooked by the number of new signings, which could lead to some teething issues. But Brennan has a way of simplifying things. They conceded a few too many goals so they signed defenders. They lacked a wildcard and signed one. They lacked an energetic midfielder and found one. And they got it done early. Brennan will also get the backing he needs later in the season too. I think it’s their year.
The reality is...
Barnet are 2nd on goal difference and are looking good for it. Their chance creation numbers are the best in the division by some distance (and despite Dean Brennan’s constant chatter about needing to be more ruthless, they are in the overperforming category against those numbers), they are controlling large portions of football matches and despite a couple of defensive horror shows, they are one of the best in the division at denying their opposition testing their goalkeeper.
This always felt like an important year for Barnet, because I think there are no excuses now for all parties. Sure, other clubs have a bigger budget. But Barnet’s isn’t small. They have, I think, 25 senior players on their books and whenever there has been a gap, they have filled it. Brennan has been backed. And he’s led all the recruitment, more often than not showcasing a midas touch when in that department. They have finished in the play-offs, finished 2nd last season to an unbelievable Chesterfield side and this year felt like the one where the only goal was promotion, preferably as champions.
I’ll open up to something I’ve shared privately a few times – much to Trevor Knell’s chagrin I’m sure.
I’ve had this worry about the relationship between Brennan and Barnet and whether it snaps leading to chaos. We’ve seen in football on numerous occasions where a manager has pushed and pushed and pushed some more before things go awry. Brennan is one of those characters – he always wants more. And perhaps I’m wrong and will be advised otherwise by Barnet fans, but it feels like he has almost got the response he wants or needs, be that player performance or an addition to the squad – Harry Smith and Gatlin O’Donkor spring to mind while Richard Nartey and Bailey Hobson arrived this season.
My worry has always been: what happens when he doesn’t get that? When he can’t bring in that extra body because the chairman says the chequebook is now closed. Or when the kids start to revolt because nothing they do is good enough and they’ll never hear the words “I’m proud of you, son”. I think back to the Aymen Azaze interview, the response to Sam Beard’s return to the side last season, telling Nicke Kabamba he should have scored 5 or 6 after a hat-trick and other sharp takes. Or his response when the crowd showed less affection or didn’t turn up earlier in the campaign, leading to that all-timer of an interview. What happens if he or somebody else reaching a point where the relationship breaks?
And that worry increased earlier in the season when he began to question his lack of options. Brennan has always shown a disdain for players in the treatment room yet he took risks this summer to bring in the likes of Clifford, Chapman and Browne, all at least 27 years of age and with a combined two seasons in which they have started 30 or more league matches (both Clifford). Yet they were his signings and a challenge he had to prove he could respond to by utilising the rest of a squad he had recruited to cover their deficiencies in the availability department. And away at York City, he found himself naming a team containing a returning Clifford, five defenders and a goalkeeper on his bench.
They lost the match but performed okay away at title challenging opponents, and have responded with five wins from eight, the other three being low-margin draws. And Brennan has utilised his squad, whether that is sticking Danny Collinge at wing-back or Ryan Glover into the front three or Nikola Tavares in the middle of midfield, roles they can play but wouldn’t ideally be playing. And the other side to his personality has been shown this season, the one that does stick an arm round the shoulders of people, does look at the bigger picture and acknowledge everything he has achieved. The side that he shows during his pre-season interviews with BeesPod where the pressure is off and he has more time to explain his beliefs around football and Barnet Football Club.
Brennan is ruthless. He’s blunt. He’s demanding. He can be a tough listen. But the job he has done at Barnet has been excellent and they show no signs of letting up. Maybe I needn’t have the worries I have had. Maybe he’s going to complete the journey he has masterminded.
Prediction for the rest of the season
The question is essentially: Are Barnet winning promotion? I could give pros and cons for every team involved at present but I predicted Barnet to win the title in the summer, they top the league after 22 matches and their underlying data is the best in the division. I’m predicting a title win.
Boston United
Position: 23rd
Record: Pld 22; W3 D6 L13; F19 A37 GD –18; Pts 15
Predicted position: 23rd
What did I say?
Predicting four clubs to be relegated is never easy. Why Boston? I like the fact that they’ve kept the core from last season but continuing the same remarkable defensive record that set them up for promotion while also replacing that front two – who scored over half of their league goals between them – is tricky. I envisage some chopping and changing to the attack without truly settling on something and it will put pressure on the backline, perhaps akin to Kidderminster Harriers last season.
The reality is....
I know four teams have to be relegated and ego should dictate that I want to be correct, but given the nature of football predictions tends to lead people down the path of backing against the underdog to surprise, I always sort of hope I’m wrong about those I predict to go down. Unfortunately, it’s not looking good for Boston United.
As anticipated, there has been a fair amount of chopping and changing. Boston have used five or six different shapes and struggled to stick with a consistent front line with Jacob Hazel taking a lot of the heavy lifting on his shoulders with others unable to consistently support. Five players have signed and been given debuts in attacking roles across the last nine matches under three different managers. Meanwhile, they have conceded an average of 1.68 goals per game and have the second worst goal difference in the division, sitting five points adrift of safety.
Ian Culverhouse was sacked following a draw with Eastleigh 16 games in. The response appeared mixed, many thankful for his role in their long-awaited promotion but there was a sense that maybe it was for the best if they wanted to stick around in the National League. After a brief spell under midfielder Martin Woods, Graham Coughlan took the reins. The Irishman has had an indifferent time of things in management but comes with experience managing at a higher level. His early prognosis has been that his team aren’t ruthless enough in either box and that’s seemingly what he will be looking to change moving forward.
Prediction for the rest of the season
Graham Coughlan has a big job on his hands. His team need to score a few more, stop conceding so many and he’s got to make those improvements with either what he has been left with or by utilising a budget that is limited comparatively to most of the division, while also cutting the seven-point gap to survival as quickly as possible. And when I look at the other sides in the fight, I’m struggling to see exactly who Boston outperform. They may put up a brave fight, but I think relegation is more than likely.
Braintree Town
Position: 21st
Record: Pld 23; W5 D5 L13; F19 A33 GD –14; Pts 20
Predicted position: 21st
What did I say?
I’ve been pretty positive about Braintree Town this summer and I still want to back their survival. Harrop has clear ideas around what he wants to see and the recruitment appears to fit that. A lot of their signings were done early too, which could be important in implementing what he wants on the pitch as well as producing a positive dressing room culture. It’s simply the competition at the level. While the division doesn’t have a Wrexham or a Stockport County or Chesterfield, the floor for the sides at the level is probably as high as ever, and I don’t see Braintree avoiding the relegation battle. They have a chance but I’ve got to make a prediction and it’s 21st.
The reality is...
That I’m not far wrong and yet there is so much more than meets the eye.
Had I produced this a few weeks ago, I’d have felt comfortable suggesting Braintree Town had more than a chance at survival. The starting XI has been relatively settled with key players playing regular football, they had won four in eight, including three of four at home, and only Oldham Athletic (on opening day) and Barnet had beaten Braintree by more than one goal. Remaining competitive is hugely important in the battle for survival and they were beginning to find the net more regularly having swapped a run of five goals in ten matches for nine goals in eight.
And then things went a bit bonkers. Back-to-back 3-1 defeats against fellow relegation candidates Boston United (away) and Maidenhead United (home) led to Angelo Harrop being sacked. Justin Moseley helped oversee an impressive 2-2 draw with Gateshead then moved on in favour of Steve Pitt, but only after chairman Lee Harding claimed he had to sack Harrop or face the prospect of going into administration due to going “significantly over budget”. Which sounds fine until you realise the bloke saying this is the one in control of the budget. A strange situation. Inih Effiong was the first to depart and it’s hard not to think more will follow.
And so Braintree Town find themselves in 21st position with a new manager who has overseen back-to-back league defeats in opening two matches. The underlying numbers don’t read too negatively, especially defensively. The challenge for Pitt is building on that and getting a few more goals out of his side while seemingly needing to reduce the budget. A tough ask.
Prediction for the rest of the season
It’s hard not to think that things are now going to be very tough for Braintree Town. I’m not going to pretend to know too much about Pitt beyond what I can locate quickly enough online, but it’s a tough challenge for anybody to walk in and improve a team already performing at a decent level without getting the results while potentially needing to reduce the budget. I fear Braintree are more likely to drop than survive at this point.
Dagenham and Redbridge
Position: 15th
Record: Pld 22; W7 D7 L8; F35 A29 GD +6; Pts 28
Predicted position: 13th
What did I say?
Dagenham and Redbridge did plenty of good work last season rectifying the culture and togetherness of the group. The new ownership haven’t walked in and ripped what has worked up, instead offering support to Strevens. I think the additions at centre-back and in midfield compliment the experience already available and they have a plethora of options in attack. I don’t think is the season Daggers make a major push, but I do see them improving and moving up the table slightly.
The reality is...
Dagenham and Redbridge aren’t making a major push and have moved up the table slightly – by one place.
Mid-table is normally an appropriate position for a side that are fine at home and poor on the road. Only Barnet and York City have got the better of them at Victoria Road and they’ve won all three matches played at home against sides below them. Spanking Gateshead 7-1 was a particular highlight on a day where everything clicked. On the road, their games have generally been tighter, never won or lost by more than one goal but they’ve been on the right side of that margin once and the wrong side five times.
And you can tell I wrote all of the above before the 3-0 loss at Wealdstone which means that statistic about tight away days no longer stands while they reside in exactly the same position they finished last season. Thanks for that.
So why is their season panning out like this? There are lots of reasons I may not be privy to as a neutral. There’s new ownership over the summer, a new Director of Football, a changeover in the playing staff that has almost entirely revolved around bringing younger players into the club (no player signed was over the age of 27). That, coupled with Strevens not consistently being able to field the spine that was so reliable for him last season – Tom Eastman, Jake Hessenthaler and Josh Rees – as well as the likes of Sam Ling, Christian N’Guessan, Ryan Hill and Josh Umerah being unavailable or not up to fitness has left Strevens with a team offering lacking a secure structure which has been harmful to the defensive solidity his teams have at their best.
However, it’s not all bad. As noted above, they are excellent at home and they are a threat. Dion Pereira has come on leaps and bounds while Junior Morias has stepped up as something of a leader in the absence of others, playing a variety of roles and producing. Their attacking numbers are pretty strong and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue, provided they can begin fielding a natural striker up top again.
Prediction for the rest of the season
More of the same. I see Strevens likely to find himself papering over the cracks until the end of the season when issues can be addressed, provided they are. That means a bottom half finish and all parties needing to agree on how they see the future. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big change or two, particularly given the rumours swirling around at present.
Eastleigh
Position: 12th
Record: Pld 22; W8 D8 L6; F30 A28 GD +2; Pts 32
Predicted position: 22nd
What did I say?
Eastleigh have some excellent players and will always be a danger to opponents because of that. They had some big lows last season. I have reservations over their business with two stepping into full-time football, three having limited senior appearances, one doesn’t appear to have an obvious role and the other has played 30+ games once in five years. Of the rest, it looks like the spine will contain a number of players in their 30’s which does little to dispel my concerns over mobility. I can’t say I have a handle on Kelvin Davis as a manager and it could go either way. I’m not convinced Eastleigh go down and 22nd could have been one of seven sides. I just feel a little less convinced Eastleigh stay up above those other teams.
The reality is..
That I’ve been frustrated since opening day about my last-minute decision to switch Eastleigh and Ebbsfleet United around in my pre-season prediction table.
They started like a house on fire, winning their opening four matches before a draw against Sutton United. After five matches, Eastleigh topped the division, Paul McCallum had registered four goals and the team was relatively settled. Since then, they have played 17 matches, winning four, losing six and drawing seven, leaving them nicely in mid-table.
So what are Eastleigh? They’re that team just kind of floating in mid-table. Their xG and xGA are about mid-table, as are their goals scored and conceded totals. They don’t take many shots but the quality is better than most. They rank low for touches in the opposition box and pressing statistics, but not so poorly that it’s a serious problem.
Kelvin Davis has kept a relatively settled team, has added depth where depth is needed, began to introduce a couple of young talents and his team have shown an ability to come from behind and not hold on to leads.
Prediction for the rest of the season
More of the same. I think Eastleigh slide a little further down the table and end up in the bottom half, but I don’t foresee them being in a position where their league status comes under threat. My hope as a neutral is that one or two of the younger players start to shine – I'm looking at Tyrese Shade, Angel Waruih and Noah Boutin.
Ebbsfleet United
Position: 24th
Record: Pld 23; W1 D6 L16; F17 A54 GD –37; Pts 9
Predicted position: 19th
What did I say?
While putting together my predictions, I’ve had Ebbsfleet bouncing all across the bottom half of the table. I have concerns around consistency with a number of new signings coming in on the back of difficult campaigns owing to form and injury, particularly in defence. The Fleet only have four players start 30 or more games last term and we may see similar figures. There is quality, there is depth, there are a few more round pegs in round holes and they probably won’t have to rely on short-term stopgaps. They should have enough, but I’m not sure it will be too pretty.
The reality is...
This has been an absolute horror campaign to date for the Fleet.
I have a problem tracking Ebbsfleet United during pre-season. They only list squads and not XI’s and I tend to find it tricky to work out exactly what is going on as a result when nosing at highlights. It meant that them lining up at Gateshead in a 4-3-3 on opening day surprised me. And then concerned me. And then it continued. And so did the chopping and changing. They made 22 changes to the starting XI during a run in which they collected one point and conceded 18 goals. I don’t like seeing any manager get the sack, but sometimes, it’s just not a surprise when it happens.
Here was my reason for feeling frustrated by it. They were fantastic at the back end of the previous season. They had a solid shape, were collecting points and the forwards looked in tandem. The parts seemed to fit. And it made more sense to stick with the 3-5-2 / 3-4-1-2 / 3-4-2-1 because they are an older side that aren’t the most mobile through the centre of the pitch, which meant that players had that little bit more protection by way of an extra body or two in the middle of the park. They lost a number of forwards in the opening weeks, had Dominic Poleon toiling away with minimal support and the team were too wide open for the space players were capable of covering.
Josh Wright took the baton and collected a 0-0 draw having opted to return to a familiar shape and Harry Watling had arrived just in time for their first win against Hartlepool United. And then it all went awry once more. The 34-year-old took charge of 12 league matches, collected four points and saw his side concede 28 goals, scoring ten and none in his last four. A dire situation, especially when you consider they played Maidenhead United, Wealdstone, Tamworth, Eastleigh and Boston United in that time.
He was backed. Sha’mar Lawson, Todd Kane, Pape Souare, Anthony Stewart, Aaron Cosgrave, Jack Wakely, Callum Harriott and Alexander Aoraha all arrived while a number of players were shipped out. He was a young manager that spoke of wanting and believing clarity was important but found himself chopping and changing in a bid to find the right set up – 39 changes to the starting XI in 12 matches. He would reference injuries and how those that were unavailable would be involved but that he couldn’t find excuses and needed others to step up.
Here’s my thinking towards Watling. I believe he has genuine ideas of what he wants to see. That includes having a team that press high, run themselves into the ground and play forward in a quick and direct manner while trusting his defenders to defend space. I think it’s why he added and trusted players that were more athletic than those he took on. However, the problem with the recruitment approach was that he was signing players that had played next to no football and weren’t immediately able to carry out what he wanted, supported by a cast that he claimed were not at the fitness level needed to carry out what he wanted. And the longer his tenure went on, the worse the mentality and confidence of the group appeared to get, ending with that 2-0 loss at Fylde.
In some ways, I feel for him. He took on the opportunity that came his way and was perhaps a little naive in terms of understanding what he was stepping into. Now he’s a 34-year-old sacked by the club at the lowest point of the professional game and unlikely to walk back into another top job. At the same time, he was very direct and sometimes brutal in his appraisals and failed to find a consistent approach that worked for him and his team leading to better performances, and he’ll have to know like every other manager that it’s a results business – he simply didn’t get on top of the job.
What comes next? Josh Wright has confirmed that he has been made permanent manager of Ebbsfleet United, which likely means his retirement from the game given he refuses to select himself. He is talking a good game in terms of believing there is enough quality to help get them out of trouble while also looking to add bodies in January. At least the fixture list will get easier – playing Barnet and Gateshead in your first two games isn’t the one.
Prediction for the rest of the season
To reach 50 points, Ebbsfleet United will need to achieve 1.78 points per game. Or to put it another way, they need to be the 4th or 5th best performing team in the National League across the second half of the season to even give themselves a chance of survival. And given the mess he inherits, I can’t see Ebbsfleet finishing anywhere other than inside the bottom four, most likely bottom.
FC Halifax Town
Position: 8th
Record: Pld 23; W9 D8 L6; F26 A23 GD +3; Pts 35
Predicted position: 15th
What did I say?
It’s part of the National League table predicting process to be down on The Shaymen after the departure of a number of key players / leaders, which leaves them short on paper and relying on one or two new signings plus others already at the club ready to step up only to see them be hard to beat, organised and capable of winning football matches on their way to a top half finish. I've had them all over the bottom half this summer and much lower than 15th, but as we reach the start of the season, I feel comfortable that they’re in decent shape and should comfortably retain their spot in the National League. I think they’ve addressed key losses, have players ready to step up and will do what Halifax Town do.
The reality is...
That I should have listened to the voice in my head that said “why are you putting them 15th when you know deep down they’ll be in the top half pushing for a play-off spot?”
FC Halifax Town are a remarkable club. So much about them says they will drop at some point. The lack of financial support, consistently losing their best players, the lack of repairs to the ground and a dwindling fanbase fed up of spending their hard earned money to receive little back from their owners. Yet Pete Wild and now Chris Millington have consistently churned out results and given fans something to get behind.
In the summer, they lost Jamie Stott, Tylor Golden, Jack Hunter and Kane Thompson-Sommers having also seen Luke Summerfield and Jordan Keane depart. That’s five of their top nine appearance makers from last season and four of their five most experienced footballers in terms of age. Only Will Smith (25) and Tom Pugh (23) added notable first-team experience in the summer as far as permanent signings were concerned. Billy Waters joined on loan shortly after and is one of just two footballers over the age of 26 at the club.
And yet, FC Halifax Town are firmly in the conversation when it comes to a top seven finish, continuing to have one of the strongest defences in the National League, continuing to overperform their underlying numbers and continuing to bloody a few noses having picked up a point or three against four of the top five. And their consistency in doing this means I have to try and turn a blind eye to some of the data, which suggests they need to create more, need to create better scoring opportunities (worst xG per shot in the league), need to make more box entries and look after the ball better. They’ve proven that their set-up and the mentality of a developing team can cope. The Shaymen are doing what they do – picking up results and making life difficult for anybody that crosses them.
Prediction for the rest of the season
I’m confident they remain in the top half. Their body of work over a long period tells me they have every chance of finishing in the top seven. Will they? If the rumours of Scott High returning are true, I’d feel more confident. Either way, they will be in the conversation come the final few games, I feel.
Forest Green Rovers
Position: 3rd
Record: Pld 22; W13 D7 L2; F40 A18 GD +22; Pts 46
Predicted position: 2nd
What did I say?
I’ve chopped and changed my title winners between Barnet and Forest Green Rovers. I’ve backed the former but it remains tight. I envisage Forest Green being a different animal this season, a team that learns how to win again, learns how to hold on to leads, manage football matches and do the ugly stuff much better. They will be solid defensively, will have obvious outlets and should improve their set-piece record. I think Cotterill will get the backing to add one or two more through the season when necessary too, which could play a key role. I’m confident they finish in the top three and it should be tight towards the top.
The reality is...
Forest Green Rovers have been a basket case for the last two years with far too many managers, directors, recruitment teams and players departing as quickly as they arrived having failed to make a positive impact. Steve Cotterill has been in the management game a long time and his experience has shown, making decisive changes to reduce the size of his squad, get rid of any deadwood, add reliability and move forward with a group that doesn’t need all that much managing.
Rather than covering the Forest Green of recent seasons, I’m now covering an uber-consistent outfit. One that has used less footballers than any other team in the division (19), with only 17 of those having started a league match. One that plays in a consistent formation with changes to the XI only made in attack out of choice. Everybody knows their job and carries it out almost every game.
Their underlying numbers aren’t uber-exciting, certainly not to the same level as Barnet, York City and Oldham Athletic as far as expected numbers are concerned. However, they are a net positive and one of the strongest outfits from a defensive point of view. Ultimately, the Gloucestershire outfit are effective. They are relatively passive out of possession but the quality of shots they concede is low. They aren’t too fussed about having lots of the ball but rank high for percentage of touches in the box to touches during the game.
As for the actual numbers, Forest Green have lost only twice this season: 1-0 defeats away at fellow contenders Barnet and Oldham Athletic. They have spent less time behind in matches than any other side in the division and have conceded more than one goal just three times in 21 matches, keeping eight clean sheets. And key to building trust back with fans, they are unbeaten at home, winning seven of ten, a record only Barnet can better from a point per game point of view.
Prediction for the rest of the season
They’ll be in the conversation for the title and certainly for the top three. While their underlying numbers aren’t as exciting as others, there is a lot of experience and knowhow in and around the Forest Green dressing room which means you can rely on them to turn tight games in their favour and continue doing the basics right. I’m not going to predict a title win. I think they stay in the top three.
Gateshead
Position: 4th
Record: Pld 23; W13 D5 L5; F45 A28 GD +17; Pts 44
Predicted position: 11th
What did I say?
They’ve roped me back in. I had big concerns around Gateshead to the point I considered them for my bottom four. I have no doubts over the quality of the starting XI or the quality of football they will play, but it’s a system that requires everybody to be on song and their depth looked to be entirely young lads stepping into the game, which would have led to some short-termism in stopgap signings and similarities to their first season back under Williamson when they required a late fight back. And then in the space of a week, they let a number of young players depart on loans and signed Jacob Butterfield and Mark Beck. They are serious. They will be quality operators. They might just fall short in another push for the play-offs.
The reality is....
They are probably going to finish in the play-offs. And do you know what? Fair play to them.
The Heed opened up the campaign with five wins from seven, drawing at Oldham Athletic and beating Barnet – some way to start. That ended abruptly with a 7-1 loss at Dagenham and Redbridge before defeat at home to Forest Green Rovers. Back-to-back wins followed and things looked to be rosy again... until Rob Elliot, Louis Storey and Antony Sweeney parted for League One Crawley Town.
Gateshead a pretty unique club, both in terms of the closeness of the fanbase following off-field issues and the style of play they have been wedded to in recent years. Stability can be key in these scenarios so the decision to appoint Carl Magnay, fresh from a spell coaching at MK Dons under former boss Mike Williamson, made sense - another person with big ties to the club’s recent history. Collecting 18 points from his opening ten matches suggests all parties made a good call.
The Heed have continued to do similar things. They are one of the best in the division for goals scored, chances created, shots taken, possession, touches in the opposition box, pressing statistics. As far as their title challenge is concerned, the worry is the quality of shot they are conceding with no team in the division conceding a higher quality of average shot (around 0.14xG). It leaves them in the bottom half when it comes to their xG against, and it’s likely the reason for them falling just short of the other four in the title picture at present – they have conceded 2 or more goals in five of their last 11.
Prediction for the rest of the season
I wrote Gateshead off in pre-season so I’m loathe to do it again. But also, I think they’re finishing outside of the top three. I love what they are about but feel they’re a little behind Oldham Athletic, York City, Barnet and Forest Green Rovers in terms of budget, knowhow and defensive strength. I dislike that predicting Gateshead to finish 4th or 5th sounds negative because it really isn’t. Their budget is small compared to most, they’ve lost their first-team coaching staff (which included their long-serving centre-back) while their captain and arguably best player is missing the campaign with a broken leg suffered on opening day. As a neutral, it’s easy to get behind the Northeast outfit and would love it if they prove me wrong.
Hartlepool United
Position: 11th
Record: Pld 23; W8 D9 L6; F26 A25 GD +1; Pts 33
Predicted position: 5th
What did I say?
Despite continued concerns around the club’s ownership, I see Hartlepool United having a positive campaign. The reasons are threefold. One, Darren Sarll enters clubs and tends to have a fast start, meaning we should see a Hartlepool United side that are up for the fight early doors, catch teams off guard and retain a high league position. Two, the squad suits what Sarll will want to see which is being dominant through the centre of the pitch physically supported by plenty of energy and quality delivery. Three, it’s a fairly reliable group with a number of players proving they can play regular football. Hartlepool won’t be a sexy team to watch, but they will be functional, reliable, hard to play against and will find a way to score goals. The question is whether they can find another gear to finish strongly, assuming my prediction of a fast start is correct.
The reality is...
One, Hartlepool United did not get off to a fast start, winning four and losing five of their opening 13 league matches and being knocked out by Brackley Town in the FA Cup. Two, the results and lack of attacking threat suggested the squad did not entirely suit what Darren Sarll wanted to see. Three, they were functional and hard to play against but were not finding a way to score goals, failing to score in six of eight league matches before Sarll’s departure.
Not a good prediction.
This was the kind of disaster that the under scrutiny Hartlepool United ownership did not need after reportedly reneging on a deal to keep Kevin Phillips, who had done an okay job during his short spell in charge, in order to employ Sarll. And so the club returned to a steady hand, that of 76-year-old Lennie Lawrence who has put smiles back on faces, found a relatively consistent starting XI and lost just one of his last nine matches.
Despite the issues under Sarll, it never felt like the team were too far off collecting results and that has shown in response to his departure, Hartlepool playing with a little more freedom within a consistent structure and losing just one of their last ten – a bonkers 5-3 loss at York City. They have kept five clean sheets in their last eight, coinciding with Lawrence making just five changes to his starting XI.
Hartlepool have begun to level out a little bit as far as performance are concerned with a slight increase in the number of opportunities they are conceding matched by the team catching up with their underperformance in front of goal. The challenge will be where the team goes post-Christmas now things have settled down.
Prediction for the rest of the season
A part of me wants to get behind them. They have an experienced spine, are already proving stronger in both boxes and there is more trust in the playing staff. The other part of me assumes that Lawrence and Limbrick are going to face new challenges as the season goes on with recruitment and injuries / knocks. They’re in the conversation for the top seven. I’ll predict them just missing out.
Maidenhead United
Position: 22nd
Record: Pld 23; W5 D5 L13; F27 A45 GD –18; Pts 20
Predicted position: 20th
What did I say?
I feel like I’m repeating myself every year with Maidenhead United. But it doesn’t matter whether they don’t have a first-choice striker at the moment, or may still lose Smith, or that their new full-backs are novices at the level. Devonshire and his team will have their finger on the pulse, they’ll add what they need to add, they’ll go on bad runs and good runs and bloody the noses of those in the top half at York Road and find a way to survive. They might finish higher than 20th but so long as they stay in the National League, I’m not sure they will be too bothered.
The reality is...
That 1) I had a message of Lee Devonshire reminding me that I had completely forgotten Tristan Abrahams was still with the club, so my whole bit about the striker in pre-season was absolutely pointless. And 2) there may be reason for concern.
The Magpies have still done what they do at times. They beat Barnet in August, earned a 1-1 draw with Solihull Moors while having ten men and scared Oldham Athletic having gone 2-0 up. Yet they have won just twice at York Road and their usual excellent form at home against the top sides hasn’t come to fruition, collecting seven points from a possible 30 against the current top 14.
But the above also showcases a little bit of what Maidenhead United have been up against this season. Of all the sides in the bottom half, they have only played Ebbsfleet United and Dagenham and Redbridge at home, collecting four points. They have only played five of the seven sides that appear to currently be part of the relegation battle (four away from home) and collected ten points. It means as they enter the second half of the season, they have a lot of games to play against the sides they need to collect points from. And for all the joking about how they perform better against the top clubs, these are the games they will be aiming to win.
Finding defensive solidity is going to be important for the second half of the season. Alan Devonshire’s side have already conceded a whopping 45 goals in their 23 matches, conceding 2 or more on 10 occasions.
Prediction for the rest of the season
In my head, there are three sides I feel are heading down. I’m struggling with the fourth. I confess to being prepared to put my head on the chopping block and consider Maidenhead United as that fourth team. But, they’ve faced such a tough opening to the campaign and walk away from it in touching distance of 20th. I’m not ready to call it yet. The club’s experiences could prove pivotal.
Oldham Athletic
Position: 5th
Record: Pld 21; W12 D7 L2; F38 A19 GD +19; Pts 43
Predicted position: 4th
What did I say?
The general consensus will be that Oldham Athletic are aiming for promotion and understandably so – it's Oldham Athletic in the National League. They may achieve it this season, but I think they have a number of hurdles to overcome still as they look to realise that ambition. Micky Mellon and Darren Royle certainly seem aware of Oldham’s recent history, not winning promotion for over three decades while their back-to-back top half finishes were their first since 2008-09. They are learning lessons as an ownership, a fanbase, a football club, a management team and that will continue this term as they look to deal with expectation, improve home form, put together winning runs, respond to setbacks and more. I’m confident they finish in the top seven. League winners? Maybe not yet.
The reality is...
They will finish in the top seven. The question is whether their remarkable form of present will be sustained in order to challenge for the number one spot.
At the time of writing, Oldham Athletic are 5th in the National League, five points behind Barnet with two games in hand and one of four clubs averaging at least two points per game. Only Forest Green Rovers can match their number of defeats (2) while they have won ten and drawn two of their last 13 league outings. The wind is certainly in their sails.
The underlying numbers are looking good too. They rank 4th for xG per game, and 3rd for xGA while in terms of actual goals scored and conceded against those expected numbers, there is a slight overperformance but less than three of the other four in the title picture at present. They are not in an undeserved position.
Mellon has done what he set out to do upon his arrival. He has cut the size of the squad down, found reliability and relative consistency in his approach. The addition of Josh Stones has been an important factor too, not least because it helps bring out the best in James Norwood, a striker that scores goals at this level and who Mellon has proven he can get the most from.
Is there a catch? Maybe. They have had one of the easier fixture lists based on points accrued by their opponents so far with eight of their 11 wins coming against sides currently residing in the bottom 11 of the division. They still haven’t played four of the top 12, have to travel to York City, Forest Green Rovers, Gateshead and local rivals Rochdale while only four of their remaining 12 home matches are against sides 14th or lower. There are tougher challenges ahead.
Prediction for the rest of the season
The Latics’ recent winning run has firmly established them as part of the title chasing pack and there a number of reasons to get behind them. They have already showcased a steeliness to earn results against three of their title contenders and the numbers look fine. The challenge to finish in the top three is definitely there. Can they win the league? I think they’ll fall short.
Rochdale
Position: 6th
Record: Pld 21; W11 D3 L7; F31 A19 GD +12; Pts 36
Predicted position: 14th
What did I say?
I think another season of consolidation is likely for Rochdale. The new ownership aren’t getting carried away and are likely to focus their work on improving facilities, relationships and standards around the club as they bid to adhere to their goals. Recruitment for the first-team has followed a similar process to last year, McNulty taking on a small squad of players, many of whom are moving towards their prime years and are looking to develop their game while playing a patient, possession-based brand of football. There has been big change in the defensive area of the pitch and will be a lot of moving parts around the club generally. A mid-table finish as they set themselves up for a more consistent push in 2025-26 is where I see things heading.
The reality is...
That when I read back through my pre-season predictions and saw I placed Rochdale in 14th after a summer of being insistent they would finish in the top 10, it blew my mind. How and why did they fall so low? It’s amazing what slips through the net sometimes. I digress.
It’s been a funny season for Rochdale. There is so much good about them and so much that can frustrate. I really like Jim McNulty and his willingness to protect his players and protect his club has been good to see, especially considering the problems he and the fanbase have had to endure over the years. The new ownership are in and it’s a fresh start for all. Seeing them start so well – five wins in eight – was lovely, as was their response of back-to-back victories after back-to-back defeats. But form has dwindled since, Dale have won and lost four of their last eight, leaving them in 6th and at the top of a congested pack looking for a top seven finish.
It has led to indifferent thoughts around the job McNulty is doing from the fanbase. Some aren’t a fan of the slow, methodical style that is designed to take jeopardy away from the game in the name of control while others are happy with the progress of the team. Dale are one of the best defensive outfits in the division, see a lot of the ball and get into the opposition box more than most but it’s also passive out of possession and they don’t take anywhere near enough efforts at goal. As a Northern club, intensity and efforts at the opponents goal are two sure-fire ways to get fans behind you and Dale have lacked that.
My opinion? McNulty and Rochdale are on the right track. I think there is still a lot of learning going on at the club, from how to deal with on-field challenges such as injuries and rotation to other aspects such as recruitment – a lot of their post-summer additions have been young lads with minimal experience entering the fray, which isn’t easy for a team that play such a distinct style. And that is going to create inconsistency in results and performance, not to mention a few mistakes.
Prediction for the rest of the season
I believe Rochdale are on the right path as far as the long-term is concerned and I expect them to continue learning as the season progresses. They will finish in the top half. Top seven? I’m not sure. They have now lost a third of their league matches this season, including six of their last 13 after such a positive start. I feel they may sink into the pack and it’s going to be about whether they can turn their style into one that creates chances more regularly. Keeping Kairo Mitchell and Devante Rodney fit could be the difference.
Solihull Moors
Position: 7th
Record: Pld 23; W10 D5 L8; F42 A36 GD +6; Pts 35
Predicted position: 9th
What did I say?
On the one hand, they have a pretty good spine in Walker, Clarke, Whitmore, Osborne and Campbell and there is better depth to the group on paper. On the other, I need more evidence around the reliability of the group as a whole, particularly in deep and attacking midfield, while Whing and Ward will face more expectation than last season having arrived at a point where there was nothing to lose. I think last season brought people together more and while I’m not sure they improve on last season’s remarkable finish in both league and cup, I think they are beginning to build for something better and should challenge.
The reality is...
Solihull Moors are a very good side but one that has to do a lot better defensively.
My pre-season concerns lay around the reliability of a squad full of experience and quality but players that haven’t always played regular football and they were starting the campaign playing catch-up. Jordan Tunnicliffe, John Bostock and Conor Wilkinson signed almost as the season started while Jamey Osborne and Tahvon Campbell didn’t have a pre-season. Joss Labadie disappeared as quickly as he returned and Kyle Morrison was missing following a problem at the end of the previous campaign. That’s a lot of experience through the spine of the team missing or having to play themselves into fitness from the off while the squad has often been fleshed out with academy talent.
The Moors have been one of the most entertaining sides in the division but to the frustration of Whing who has bemoaned his side’s inability to keep the back door shut owing to errors. They have kept only three clean sheets this season, all away from home, and conceded 3 or more goals in five of their last eight at home. That so many have come from open play, and in particular crosses, only adds to the idea that Moors need to be so much better in their structure and defensive play.
They are excellent going forward, however. They have failed to score on four occasions, three of which came against the sides currently placed 2nd, 3rd and 4th while netting 33 goals in their last 15 matches. Jamey Osborne sits towards the top of the expected and actual assists chart with Jack Stevens and Conor Wilkinson in double figures for goal contributions. The quality is there, it’s just their defensive application.
Prediction for the rest of the season
Like a lot of sides in the race for a play-off spot, I can’t rule Solihull Moors out. Will they tighten up? Will they stop scoring so many? Will they just balance out? It’s all a little chaotic at the moment and I can’t answer any of those questions definitively. I remain concerned by the defensive area of the pitch, so I’m going to follow my gut and my pre-season prediction and say they’ll finish outside of the top seven.
Southend United
Position: 16th
Record: Pld 23; W6 D9 L8; F24 A27 GD –3; Pts 27
Predicted position: 3rd
What did I say?
No more distractions. No more off-field issues. Just a chance to look forward. They have a fantastic manager, a quality coaching staff, plenty of people behind the scenes that care, a quality group that have proven their togetherness over time and the ability to add more quality to that group with John Still helping lead that. This squad will be one of, if not the, best defensive sides in the division and amongst the best going forward – they will hope to improve on a record of scoring 15 goals less than expected last term. I could place Southend anywhere in the top three and feel comfortable with it.
The reality is...
Just when it looked like Southend United were set to move forward, they’ve come up against issues.
Centre-back Ollie Kensdale departed under a cloud. Leading striker Harry Cardwell was sold to Forest Green Rovers. Cavaghn Miley picked up an injury that forced him out of action for two months. The spine of the team gone before the end of August. Factor in Collin Andeng-Ndi's form dipping and a lack of consistency for a forward line that hadn’t had much of a pre-season and it just feels like Kevin Maher has been fighting battles since day one in an attempt to find the consistency and reliability that has served him team so well in recent seasons.
The Blues aren’t a side that should be 16th in the division. They are one of the better sides in the National League when it comes to their expected numbers, slightly underperforming at both ends, they keep the ball well and get into the box regularly. It’s just finding that clinical edge, which is where the off-field changes, no matter how positive they will become in the long-term, and losing the spine of their team really doesn’t help.
And so we have a side that have lost back-to-back matches on three occasions and are yet to win back-to-back matches, drawing the joint most games in the division. Their first half record is better than their second half record, they have spent more time leading than losing, have kept a lot of clean sheets but have scored 0 or 1 in 15 of their 22 matches. Finding that clinical edge will be the difference between a positive and fairly negative finish in the table.
Prediction for the rest of the season
If Southend United want to reach 75 points, they will need to accrue 2.09 points per game between now and the end of the season. That’s what the top three are currently hitting. For 70, it’s 1.89, which would be a top five performance. The chances of the Blues reaching the top seven at this stage are minimal. A top half finish is likely the focus now as the management team work towards building a team that can finally start the new season prepared and ready to go from the off.
Sutton United
Position: 13th
Record: Pld 23; W9 D5 L9; F30 A29 GD +1; Pts 32
Predicted position: 12th
What did I say?
I’ll be honest, I have absolutely no idea with Sutton United. On the one hand, I think Steve Morison is very clear in what he wants and will have made moves this summer to fit his demands. I think he’s got a young group that will play a tidy style of football and have the kind of wildcards in the final third that should make them enjoyable to watch, as well as a threat to opponents. Yet I’m also concerned by the sheer scale of change this summer, not to mention only signing one player over the age of 25. I think they will be more than fine but I feel like inconsistency is likely.
The reality is...
Sutton United have been inconsistent but there are a lot of positives to take from their rebuild to date.
They have twice lost three on the spin but also gone on four and five match unbeaten runs on three occasions. Their record against the poorer sides in the division is strong, save for a 3-0 loss at home to Boston United, while their record against the top sides needs improving, save for a 5-0 thumping of Altrincham.
They find themselves in 13th place at the time of writing and have the most mid-table of records having won and lost nine of their 23 league outings. It’s been a weird season to date in terms of personnel, Steve Morison deserving credit for his handling of the challenges that have come his way but also playing his part in recruiting a near-entire new squad that has had to be chopped and changed on the regular owing to injuries, knocks and the inconsistencies that come with signing so many young players.
Finding the right balance hasn’t been easy but Morison has been patient with his tactical changes, a recent switch to a back three working in respects of his side conceding six goals in their last nine games but blunting their attacking output. Data wise, they are a defensively sound side that press well, showing the kind of energy and tenacity that made Morison an important player higher up the pyramid. They create a better quality of chance that most but have work to do when it comes to control of a football match, which may be the next step.
Prediction for the rest of the season
I don’t foresee a huge amount of change to their spot in the table. The scale of change has been the key aspect to their inconsistency but this is only the start of their journey. I’m expecting more challenges to creep up, another change or two in a bid to find the right balance and a team that is left in a good spot to build on in the summer where they can look to step up a level or two.
Tamworth
Position: 14th
Record: Pld 22; W8 D5 L9; F25 A38 GD –13; Pts 29
Predicted position: 24th
What did I say?
It always feels lazy to predict newcomers to go straight back down, especially in bottom place. However, the last two seasons have seen a newly promoted club finish bottom, a third has been relegated, two survived after late runs of form dragged them out of the relegation picture and none have finished in the top half. Tamworth remain a part-time outfit and have stepped up two divisions in a short amount of time. I’m getting shades of Kidderminster Harriers in how I see Tamworth this season. They will be competitive, they will play games on tight margins and look to utilise what they can to win games. But turning tight margins affairs into enough victories will be tough and I can only hope they prove me wrong.
The reality is...
They have proved me wrong. In fact, they have proven a lot of people wrong.
Andy Peaks doesn’t look or sound like your typical football manager but his calmness and honesty allows you to understand why he has consistently done a good job with Tamworth. He didn’t panic when a number of his players picked up injuries, instead choosing to back his squad and only add players when absolutely necessary. He has an experienced spine, all of whom have stepped up at various points and their FA Cup performance has been simply marvellous, leading them to a huge third round cup tie with Tottenham Hotspur.
A big reason why I believe Tamworth have performed so well is because they know exactly who and what they are. They aren’t pretending to be anything they’re not and it means staff, players and fans know what they are getting each week. And it would remiss not to mention to the pitch that they use to their advantage – just two of their nine losses have come at the Lamb. Yet Tamworth have also picked up big wins on the road at fellow strugglers AFC Fylde and Braintree Town while earning a point at Boston United early in the season and they are unbeaten against the bottom eight.
They are unlikely to be data darlings at any point this season but what they lack in quality and control between both boxes, they make up with their effectiveness defending their territory and finding a way into the oppositions.
Prediction for the rest of the season
Tamworth are staying up. Going into the second half of the campaign, they are nine points clear of the drop with a number of games yet to play against the sides below them in the table. The consistency of their approach and on-field leadership and reliability will be important, along with their home form. I don’t see the squad being picked apart by the vultures in January. What a job Peaks and his team have done.
Wealdstone
Position: 18th
Record: Pld 22; W5 D8 L9; F27 A32 GD –5; Pts 23
Predicted position: 17th
What did I say?
I’ve been pretty consistent all summer about Wealdstone going down. And the longer the summer went on, the more I got cold feet about that decision. I have reservations around Taylor, I must confess. But I see it going one of two ways for him – he either shows he can give Wealdstone a platform to perform or they replace him with somebody who proves that. The back three is strong, they have clear outlets out wide, huge experience through the spine and enough direct threats to cause problems. Aside from Taylor, I have concerns around consistency of the starting XI meaning we could see peaks and troughs. I think Wealdstone will have enough.
The reality is...
My concerns around Matthew Taylor and a lack of consistency in selection were ringing true as the team sat 23rd in mid-October. The former Shrewsbury Town and Walsall boss had used four or five different formations, had made an average of 3.3 changes to his starting XI per game and new bodies were being thrown in left, right and centre.
And then it stopped. I’m not sure of the reasons why, but Taylor settled on a formation and, for the most part, a starting team. It helps that his team found some form, the arrival of Alex Reid coinciding with both Sam Ashford and Max Kretzschmar returning to fitness and the team finally scoring some goals. Meanwhile they have finally played the same midfield pairing for more than two games in a row and the defence has been relatively settled. It’s little wonder they went six without defeat.
It makes for an interesting second half of the season for the Stones. Their recent run has shown that a team that have been competitive and played some excellent football in most of their matches can pick up results and score goals. Meanwhile, they have eight games to play against the current bottom six with double headers against Tamworth, Maidenhead United and Boston United to come. And yet, they are losing Alex Reid, who has had such a big impact in front of goal.
The opportunities are going to be there to pick up points. It’s important that Taylor sticks to his principles and manages to keep some consistency in selection as they navigate the second half of the campaign.
Prediction for the rest of the season
Wealdstone are a side I’ve had my eye on in the race to go down. Their fixture list and general performance give me reason to believe they’ve got an excellent chance of survival and though I have concerns about their ability to replace Reid and the depth of their midfield and attack, I’m siding with them avoiding the drop.
Woking
Position: 17th
Record: Pld 23; W6 D6 L11; F21 A33 GD –12; Pts 24
Predicted position: 16th
What did I say?
I like Doyle, I like the early business, I like what I saw last season. I’m confident that Doyle will get his messages across and we will see a team with leadership and quality, built from a fairly solid base. But it’s hard to ignore the number of changes to the squad coupled with off-field issues that leave the recruitment feeling a little unfinished – particularly in attack. While there is confidence a takeover will happen, there will likely be some short-term pain that follows given the reported debt and cashflow issues. I want to base this prediction on the football as much as I can and hope the financial concerns don’t escalate further. Doyle will get his ideas across and he doesn’t strike me as somebody that will look for the excuses that others may in the situation. However, he is likely to be fielding an XI with square pegs fitting round holes at times and they may lack the natural balance and quality to carry out what he wants on a consistent basis.
The reality is...
That Michael Doyle lost his job shortly before I finalised this piece and has been replaced by Neal Ardley.
I feel for Doyle. I don’t know exactly what conversations took place when he took the job but given the early summer outlay on Ben Wynter, Cian Harries, Dale Gorman and Harry Beautyman, you have to assume he had assurances that he would receive a decent budget to begin moving the club forward. As predicted in pre-season, he was left with a squad that felt unfinished and was therefore putting square pegs in round holes or signing players on cheap deals hoping they might plug a gap until a takeover was complete – as evidenced by Jack Stretton and Deon Moore departing early.
There is a clear disparity in the results he was able to achieve. At the time of Doyle’s departure, Woking had played ten matches against sides placed 12th or lower in the league table and collected 19 points, only losing away at Tamworth, while they had collected just two points from 12 against teams 11th or higher, failing to score in seven of those and never scoring more than once. The lack of attacking quality and balance to the team clearly shone against the better teams in the division.
Still, Doyle isn’t blameless in all of this. He regularly chopped and changed formation and style and though his team worked hard and pressed well, the quality of their football suffered as a result. Fans never knew which team would turn up from one week to the next, both in terms of personnel and system. Doyle left the club following a run of one win in 14 and his side scoring just one goal in the last six. It was clearly decided the new era should start with somebody else at the helm.
Neal Ardley returns to management in the National League. It makes sense in a number of ways. He’s fairly local, knows Michael Doyle well having managed him at Notts County and also knows a couple of players already at the club. It’s also a sensible appointment for a new ownership. Ardley is somebody that will focus on finding reliability, leadership and stability and should work through the squad churn and off-field upheaval. However, that may come at the cost of style in the early period so it could become a bit of a grind between now and the end of the season.
Opening up with a 2-1 win against Altrincham, largely putting to bed the statistic from above about their record against good sides was quite the way to start.
Prediction for the rest of the season
The appointment of Ardley makes me confident Woking survive. I don’t think it will be pretty and he, the players and fans may endure short-term pain as far as style is concerned, but I think he will identify the leaders in his team, players who possess proven quality at National League level, and work around them leading to an improvement in results.
Yeovil Town
Position: 10th
Record: Pld 23; W10 D4 L9; F28 A35 GD –7; Pts 34
Predicted position: 16th
What did I say?
I remain frustrated for Yeovil Town fans given the off-field noise but it seems apparent that on the pitch, Mark Cooper has attentions focused and a group that are together. There are leaders, there is reliability, there is a team that have learned how to win football matches regularly and they have a shape that enables them to play the sort of football Cooper has a reputation for playing. It’s all fairly positive from where I sit and it means I have confidence they won’t be too worried about relegation. They sit 18th on account of the step up being a big one for any club – no promoted side has finished in the top half since Stockport County and Woking managed it in 2019-20 – and the squad just generally not being as strong as others at the level.
The reality is...
That I’ve just noticed an error in my pre-season conclusion where I referenced Yeovil Town finishing 18th having predicted a 16th place finish. Goddamn it.
Yeovil have performed far better than perhaps even they expected this season, sitting just outside the top seven at the time of writing. Cooper has showcased his qualities as a manager this term through recruitment, use of squad and in-game tactical flexibility – Yeovil’s -3 goal difference in the first half of matches becomes a +6 in the second half of games.
However, the clearest indication of where Yeovil Town are right now is in who they have beaten. The Glovers have played 13 matches against sides in the bottom half of the table, winning ten and drawing three. They have played ten matches against sides in the top half, drawing one and losing nine. They have scored 23 of their 28 league goals in their nine matches against the sides currently in the bottom eight and failed to score in nine of their 12 matches against sides in the top 14.
It would appear changes are afoot as far as the attack is concerned if noises around players being transfer listed are true. It will be interesting to see if the changes work as far as creating more quality chances against the better sides is concerned. For now, I think Yeovil fans and Cooper can be happy with the work they have done to date, knowing that there is hopefully more to come.
Prediction for the rest of the season
Cooper is a very experienced football manager at this point in his career and he will know exactly what he needs in order to progress Yeovil a step further. The challenge is whether he can get what he needs on a modest budget – they have found themselves relying on youngsters stepping in on loan to date. They’ve had an excellent start and I see no reason why they can’t finish in the top half. I do think they will fall short of a top seven place, however, just on account of lacking the extra bit of quality that allows them to collect more results against the better outfits in the division.
York City
Position: 1st
Record: Pld 23; W14 D6 L3; F47 A20 GD +27; Pts 48
Predicted position: 10th
What did I say?
Another summer of change and I’m far more positive about York City this time around. However, The Minstermen finished 20th last season, so turning that into a top seven finish would be a huge achievement for Hinshelwood and his players. The process of moving players out will continue while five of their first nine signings are either stepping up a level or moving into full-time football. It means that I foresee some peaks and troughs during a campaign that will see the club wanting to be ambitious but hopefully understanding the need to build some stability. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they land themselves in the top seven and even higher than that, but I’m going to be cautious in my prediction and see where the season takes them.
The reality is...
I needn’t have been cautious. The ownership have taken a back step this season and let the footballing personnel at the club do their thing, changing footballing culture to one that is far more enjoyable for fans to watch and has proven successful across the first half of the National League campaign. It helps that their home form has been excellent – a shock early season defeat against Boston United and a goalless draw with Eastleigh at the end of a three-game week the only blots on the copy book.
Simply put, York are one of the best sides in the division. Their style is one of high possession, high pressing and high territory, creating opportunities at will and doing a good job of keeping the back door shut. They have a clear way of playing but are tactically and positionally more flexible than any other side in the division, which gives them an advantage going into each game because it’s hard for opponents to plan against an exact system. While Hinshelwood had a little bit of time with the group he inherited last season, it’s undeniably an achievement to be pushing for the title after just one pre-season and summer of recruitment.
Can they keep it up? On the one hand, there has been a lot of change with Hinshelwood rotating plenty in order to keep his players fresh as they adapt to a new club and/or new ideas. On the other, York have an extremely talented squad, a lot of experience and the finances to keep improving as evidenced by the arrivals of David Ajiboye and Jeff King. They are the only team in the division to score more than two per game and concede less than one, a basic statistic but one that showcases their ruthlessness.
Prediction for the rest of the season
Like others in the top five, the question is whether York will win the title. Having backed Barnet, I have to say no by default. But I’m not ruling them out whatsoever and I’m confident they are finishing in the top three. Given they survived on the final day last season, a top three finish would be some achievement. A title? One of the best turnarounds in National League history, regardless of noise around the budget.
Absolutely brilliant piece mate!