Vanarama National League Predictions and Betting Tips: Matchday 10
Ryan Deeney of NL Musings picks out his Vanarama National League Predictions and Betting Tips for the upcoming midweek slate. Including Maidenhead United, Oxford City and an Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Southend United - Maidenhead United
It says plenty that the market is already shifting on this.
Southend United are favourites on Tuesday for a reason. They're underlying numbers last season projected fantastically and they've followed that on this term. Kevin Maher and his team are clearly fantastic coaches & the players are carrying out instruction superbly.
All this while under a transfer embargo for a year, huge protests against the owner, a ten point deduction, often not being paid and barely having a pre-season. They have just 15 players available this term under National League rules and can't replace them (barring an emergency goalkeeper, I suspect).
Injuries and suspension are therefore untimely and they are now hitting them hard at the worst time. Nathan Ralph was absent for the game on Saturday, a game in which Harry Taylor and Gus Scott-Morriss were sent off. Oli Coker remained on the bench due to a hamstring issue.
Southend have just lost three of their first-choice back five. The 15-man squad contains just one natural centre-back as it is. The other two competent options are now missing. Their left-wing-back is more creative winger than full-back. It's hard to know what that defence will look like. And they won't have a fully fit substitute available either.
I wouldn't normally back Maidenhead United away from home. They're not fantastic on the road. But they have two powerful forwards available, two of the sharpest and paciest wingers in the division and a dead ball specialist. And at 7/2 to win, 14/5 Draw No Bet and 11/10 Double Chance, they are absolutely worth backing.
Bet: Maidenhead United Double Chance @ 14/5
Eastleigh - Oxford City
I will have to stop doing this at some point to save face with Eastleigh fans but while their opponents remain at good odds to get results, I have to back against them.
Oxford City are understandably outsiders for their game at Silverlake. They're newly promoted, part-time and favourites for relegation.
However, they're not playing like it. They're a very good side. They play a good brand of football, play on the front foot and are packing a serious punch - 3 goals v Solihull Moors, 4 v Boreham Wood, 5 v Hartlepool United. Josh Parker has returned, Olly Sanderson has had a big impact and even Zac McEachran can't force his way into the side at the moment.
Eastleigh have got seven points from their last four games but there always seems to be a caveat.
Against Aldershot Town, the game was even until the Shots goalkeeper was sent off half hour in. A 0-0 draw with Dorking Wanderers followed. They were humiliated by Gateshead. And at the weekend, they best AFC Fylde but Joe McDonnell was named Man of the Match with the hosts dominant but lacking a killer instinct.
Oxford play a similar formation and have a relatively similar style to Gateshead and Fylde and I think they will be able to head down to Silverlake, play their game and create opportunities.
Bet: Oxford City Draw No Bet @ 7/5
Chesterfield - FC Halifax Town
FC Halifax Town don't do fun.
They've played nine league matches this season: 2-0; 0-2; 2-1; 1-1; 1-1; 0-0; 1-0; 1-1; 0-1. That's only one match containing three or more goals. No team scoring more than once in any of their last six matches.
There were similar results for the final four games of the 2022-23 campaign and following their early run of poor form, Chris Millington turned things around by being defensively strong - they conceded 29 goals and scored 42 in their final 35 league matches.
They aren't about to open up at the SMH Group Stadium either. Not against Chesterfield.
Chesterfield have seen plenty of goals scored this year with only two of their nine matches seeing under 2.5 goals. However, they have played a surprisingly impressive number of sides that like to take the game to their opposition by beinhg expansive in their play.
The outliers include Oldham Athletic, a 1-1 draw and Dagenham and Redbridge, a 3-1 win that saw few chances until a red card for the Daggers. They also beat Ebbsfleet United 1-0 at the weekend with a move to playing both Mike Jones and Tom Naylor in front of the defence as well as Miguel Freckleton helpful to their defensive solidity - we'll ignore attacking midfielder Liam Mandeville fitting in at right-back!
Also, meetings between these sides last season finished 1-0 and 2-0 while four of the last five meetings have seen fewer than three goals scored.
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1/1
Back three treble at just over 17/1