Vanarama National League Predictions and Betting Tips: Matchday 16
After a two week break, I'm back with some Vanarama National League Predictions and Betting Tips ahead of matchday 16 worth over 15/1
AFC Fylde vs Ebbsfleet United
It’s been a disastrous campaign for AFC Fylde and a third consecutive defeat, away at Oxford City, left Adam Murray without a job.
The issues have been obvious from day one. The team haven’t been able to defend. Murray spoke about resolving it with the players at his disposal, which didn’t happen. The next step was for him to be backed to make big changes and that never happened either, a couple of short-term additions never likely to help, as Gateshead found last season. Murray became less and less assured of what his best XI looked like and the “board” made the decision to make a change with their National League status already at threat.
Chris Beech, Director of Football, has taken the reins and got off to a decent start with a 3-1 win in the FA Cup against eighth tier Leek Town. There was a change of shape, change of personnel and a less complicated style of football for the game.
Quite how things turn out in their first league game under Beech remains to be seen but Beech is experienced in the role and I doubt he will start complicating things when results are needed.
They host Ebbsfleet United, another side enduring difficulties since promotion. They are actually the highest placed side of the four promoted clubs at present, sitting pretty in 16th. However, they have lost six of their last eight and were dumped out of the FA Cup by National League South Slough Town.
Dominic Poleon has returned, which is a positive. But their away form has been abysmal – they have drawn one and lost six of their last seven in all competitions, have conceded 23 goals and three or more on four occasions. The only point came at Woking who battered them over the course of the 90 minutes.
Both sides are enduring defensive issues, both sides are capable at creating opportunities and it could go either way, but I have a gut feeling on Fylde getting the result under new management.
Bet: AFC Fylde to win + over 1.5 goals @ 6/5
Eastleigh vs York City
A case of backing the odds. York City are 2/1 to beat Eastleigh.
There are reasons for this, of course. Eastleigh are actually in decent form. They’ve picked up five wins and two draws from ten games under the stewardship of Richard Hill, who has now been given the full-time job. They’ve scored goals too, managing to find the net two or more times in six of those ten.
However, I still can’t scratch the itch that they’re not a brilliant side. Their win against Aldershot Town saw them play against ten men and no goalkeeper for an hour. They beat struggling AFC Fylde and Kidderminster Harriers sides and weren’t necessarily the better team. Halifax Town were forced to name two debutants that hadn’t played at the level in their XI and Ebbsfleet we’ve discussed above. I don’t like to blasé and write off five victories because it’s impressive, but they haven’t exactly faced the toughest of opposition.
The three defeats have come against Gateshead, Bromley and Hartlepool United, undeniably the best three teams they have faced during that run.
Based on results, York City look a side that would be amongst the poorer teams but things are improving under Neal Ardley. He has overseen three wins, three draws and two losses from his eight in charge. It’s not been an easy fixture list either – they've beaten Southend United, Woking and Dagenham and Redbridge, drawn with Boreham Wood, Solihull Moors and Bromley and lost against Oldham Athletic and Barnet. Seven sides that you would expect to finish in the top half (points deductions not withstanding).
Notably, only Oldham have stopped York scoring two goals in a game during that period with Ardley quickly establishing patterns of play to get his side on the front foot, while record signing Dipo Akinyemi is flying as the main man.
Over 1.5? Eastleigh have seen eight of their ten outings under Hill finish with three or more goals having been scored. York have seen the same in seven of their eight under Ardley and at least two in every game.
Bet: York City to win + over 1.5 goals @ 3/1
Chesterfield vs Gateshead
The two teams I tipped up with Betfair to win promotion this season. I’m devastated that the chances of that happening have now reduced.
Mike Williamson has been an incredible manager at Gateshead, he and his support team turning the Heed from a middle of the pack National League North club to genuine National League promotion contenders.
And then he left. And so did Ian Watson and Chris Bell. We’ll never know how this season ends with Williamson still in charge.
Rob Elliot has taken the reins with Carl Magnay and Louis Storey in support, ensuring there is some continuity heading into what many would see as the toughest game of the season – a trip to Chesterfield.
Normally, I wouldn’t have touched this game. There’s still a part of me that wonders whether I should. Gateshead are a fantastic side that create chances like no other team in the league and they should get space against a Chesterfield side that give teams opportunities. But the loss of Williamson is undeniably a big one and it raises questions about whether they will stick to the same levels regardless of scoreline here.
Nothing has changed for Chesterfield. They remain top of the league table having won 12 of their 15 league games. Their home record is even better, winning six of seven and scoring three or more in five of those. They are ruthless, unsurprising given the quality at their disposal, and almost always find a way to win a football match.
Given the circumstances, I have to back them and also back them to score more than once.
Bet: Chesterfield to win + over 1.5 goals @ 5/6
Back the treble @ over 15/1