Vanarama National League Predictions and Betting Tips: Matchday 19
Ryan Deeney of NL Musings is back with some Vanarama National League Predictions and Betting Tips - including backing against 1/4 favourites
Firstly, my apologies for failing to provide tips for matchday 18. Time simply evaded me during an unbelievably hectic schedule and the impending release of Football Manager.
A very frustrating weekend as the three I did back let me down by a single goal. Solihull Moors beat Wealdstone (10/11); AFC Fylde picked up a result at Gateshead (double chance at 9/5) and Barnet did beat Oxford City as predicted, but Oxford failed to secure the BTTS element (win + BTTS at 17/10).
It’s only a bit of fun, but a winner is always more enjoyable.
Anyway, on to the 11/11 fixture list.
Wealdstone - Rochdale
I wanted to get behind Wealdstone at home given their form but with Rochdale the opposition, I didn't feel confident enough to back the win outright. The solution? Includes goals.
Wealdstone have been excellent at home. Their nine matches at Grosvenor Vale have seen them win five and draw three, their only defeat coming all the way back in August.
It's nothing new. They lost seven of their 23 home matches last season with five of those coming against the eventual top eight.
To their credit, Rochdale have performed well on the road this season and their 3-2 win in Hartlepool last time out was more than impressive.
That was their first win in seven and their defensive record is a key reason for that, conceding two or more in their last eight matches. Having a small squad doesn't help matters either.
Both teams have scored in 10 of Rochdale's last 11 matches while it's common in Wealdstone matches, six of their nine home games finishing BTTS (yes) and 12 of 18 overall.
Bet: Wealdstone Double Chance + BTTS @ 11/10
Gateshead vs Dorking Wanderers
A case of backing against insane odds.
Gateshead are 1/4 to win this football match and anybody that has watched them or seen the underlying numbers knows why. I tipped them for promotion and was happy to have done so.
Then Mike Williamson left. And their response to his departure has been concerning, going two behind against Rochdale before clawing it back and losing 4-0 at home against AFC Fylde.
It's been two weeks since they last played and it's plausible that the squad have settled down a little since the departure. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Rob Elliot's side hit Dorking hard here in an act of defiance.
But Dorking are 11/2 to win this football match and 11/5 on the double chance. I have to back the possibility that they can find a way to leave with a point.
After all, Dorking are a different side this year. They're not the same brash, naive side that simply look to outscore the opposition and regularly get punished. They've already won in Halifax and Hartlepool and have conceded 1 or 0 goals in 8 of their last 12 matches. Not perfect, but better.
Barry Fuller, Jimmy Muitt, Niall McManus and Alfie Rutherford have had game time now. Jason Prior and Luke Moore are back. James McShane had time from the bench against Dagenham and Redbridge. Tony Craig may return too. The squad should be a little stronger.
There is a chance Gateshead turn it on and hurt Dorking. But the odds are so big and in the circumstances, I have to back the visitors.
Bet: Dorking Wanderers Double Chance @ 11/5
Aldershot Town vs Kidderminster Harriers
In 2022-23, Aldershot Town won six of 23 home matches. In 2021-22, they won four of 22. That's 11 wins in 45 games in front of their own supporters. Pitiful.
Tommy Widdrington wasn't having that. He's a proud man. A mentality shift has taken place and The Shots have won 5 of their 9 matches at the EBB this year, their only defeat coming against Chesterfield in a really fun game that finished 3-4. Aldershot have scored in every home match and twice or more in six.
Their record against bottom half sides is excellent too. Winning and scoring two or more in seven of 11 matches against such opposition. It's no fluke either, their xG the 8th best in the league according to Wyscout.
Their ability to score goals is what should set them apart here.
Kidderminster Harriers have played 18 National League matches and failed to score more than once in any of them. That alone is reason to back the Shots here.
However, it's worth noting that Kiddy, who sit bottom of the league table, have lost six of their nine away matches. And their overall record against top half clubs reads 11 matches, seven losses and four draws. Away from home, it's three defeats and one draw, four losses if you include Southend.
Kiddy are dogged and their league position doesn't necessarily match with their performance level, but they lack the quality and confidence of this weekend's opposition.
Bet: Aldershot Town to win @ 10/11
Back the treble @ just over 12/1