Vanarama National League Predictions and Betting Tips (02/12/2023)
A shorter docket but plenty of opportunity to win money. It's this week's Vanarama National League Predictions and Betting Tips.
With the FA Cup second round on, we have a reduced slate this week.
There’s still plenty of opportunities to back some winners, however.
Once again, it was one selection that hurt us last week. I toyed and toyed with whether to back Rochdale or York City for a straight up win rather than Draw No Bet and I chose the wrong horse with Rochdale winning 2-1 and York drawing 2-2 with Maidenhead. Ah well.
A new week. More selections. We go again!
And if you fancy some FA Cup selections, why not check this out?
https://betting.betfair.com/football/fa-cup/fa-cup-second-round-tips-back-the-non-league-cup-upset-treble-at-28-1-011223-1230.html
Bromley vs Rochdale
Bromley are higher than evens to win a football match which automatically peaks my interest and I think it’s worth backing this weekend.
Andy Woodman’s side lost their last home game in devastating fashion, seeing a two-goal lead slip, having a man sent off and conceding a late, late winner. However, they responded superbly, travelling up to Hartlepool United, enduring a number of travel problems and promptly spanking their hosts 4-1 despite losing the majority of their midfielders prior to the game.
The Ravens had won eight in a row at home before that and it’s worth noting that their only two defeats at home have come against Barnet (during their early season wobble) and Aldershot, both of whom sit in the top six at present.
I also think there is a stylistic element to this game that suits Bromley, their preference for being organised and hitting sides in transition or from set-pieces useful against a team that like to dominate the ball whether playing home or away.
I think Jim McNulty is doing a fantastic job at Rochdale, taking a recently relegated side and establishing them as part of the race for the play-offs despite struggling financially and therefore having difficulties improving the squad. McNulty has had to manage things game-to-game, sticking to a preferred style but utilising players in various different roles to good effect.
They’ve actually performed okay on the road this term but it has to be noted that 10 of their 11 away matches have been played against sides currently 12th or lower – and Southend United aren’t one of them. They lost their only away match against a top 10 outfit (at Solihull Moors) and curiously that game mirrors what you would expect this to be – Rochdale having plenty of the ball and the opposition being ready to pick them off when the opportunity presents itself.
I do think Rochdale’s penchant for scoring goals could give them a chance, but Bromley are solid at home, possess a threat from a variety of situations and my belief is that they will walk away with a 9th home victory in 12 games.
Bet: Bromley to win @ 11/10
Oxford City vs Maidenhead United
Don’t back against Maidenhead United. Don’t back against Maidenhead United. Don’t back against Maidenhead United.
I’m backing Oxford City to get a result against Maidenhead United.
Ah!!
In all seriousness, I’m taking the gamble here. For starters, I do like Oxford City. Ross Jenkins is doing a brilliant job despite their low position in the table, keeping them firmly in with a shout of survival despite them having what I believe to be the smallest budget in the division and this being the club’s first ever season at this level.
Oxford went into the season backing those that won promotion but they have since made changes, bringing in the likes of Mitch Roberts, Cole Kpekawa and Olly Sanderson, giving the side a little more quality and physicality to deal with the step up.
The club know, like most promoted teams, that home advantage is going to be important and it’s something they are utilising well, winning four and drawing two of their 11 home games. The five defeats have all come against sides currently in the top eight meaning the six results they have picked up have come against sides 12th or lower.
Notably, they have scored two or more goals in five of those outings and their confidence heading into Saturday will increase with the knowledge key players are returning, including captain Reece Fleet.
They also take on a Maidenhead United side who tend to pick up the majority of their points at home and against the better sides in the league. They have won just two matches on the road this season, losing six. They are also yet to beat any side 17th or lower in the table, losing against Boreham Wood and drawing all six games against the bottom six.
Maybe the draw is the play here, actually.
No, let’s stick to my guns. Oxford do pose a threat. They do score goals at home. Maidenhead are in good form but their form tends to be patchy and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see they come with a point at most on Saturday.
Bet: Oxford City Draw No Bet @ 6/5
FC Halifax Town vs Solihull Moors
A selection based on these sides being fairly even in the underlying numbers and their games being played on relatively tight margins.
Chris Millington has overseen 22 league matches this season and just three have been separated by more than one goal with two of those being their opening two matches of the season. It means that they and their opposition are always in games, making it always worth backing them.
They take on a Solihull Moors side that have seen six of their 22 matches separated by more than one goal. Their away record is strong too, winning six and drawing three of 11. When you consider the two defeats were absolute humpings at the hands of Southend United (5-0) and Altrincham (6-1) and Halifax are yet to score more than two goals in a league game, it’s stands to reason that this one will be closely fought.
As for the underlying numbers, neither side are particularly great at creating chances. According to Wyscout, they are the second and third worst teams in the league for chance creation, owing to styles that see them prefer given up the ball in order to keep shape and transition quickly. Defensively, they are both around mid-table so there really isn’t much to split them.
Alex Whitmore has arrived at Solihull Moors this week to provide more leadership to a side that have creaked open of late and with his new side above evens on the draw no bet, I feel it’s an option worth backing.
Bet: Solihull Moors Draw No Bet @ 11/10
Back the treble @ over 10/1