The NL Musings National League 2024-25 Team-by-Team Review
A look back at all 24 National League clubs including my predictions, what happened, the numbers behind their campaign and a brief look and what is to come.
Yeah so... a little bit late. Sorry about that.
The 2024-25 National League campaign finished on 1st June with the final game of the English club football calendar as over 50,000 fans made their voice heard at Wembley in a fantastic back and forth encounter between two huge clubs at the level.
It was Oldham Athletic who came out victors on the day, and we wave goodbye to them and Barnet following well-earned promotions. We also say goodbye to Ebbsfleet United, AFC Fylde, Maidenhead United and Dagenham and Redbridge following their relegations. For runners-up York City, beaten play-off finalists Southend United and 16 other clubs, I’ll see you next season as we do it all again.
For those unfamiliar with these end of year pieces, this is where I look back alphabetically at all 24 clubs, going through:
Their record
The raw numbers
The reality
The stats
What happens next
Hopefully you enjoy!
If you want to check out my National League awards, including…
Manager of the season
Player of the season
Young player of the season
Goal of the season
Assist of the season
Save of the season
Team of the season
You can do so here:
AFC Fylde
Position: 23rd
Record: P 46; W 11 D 7 L 28; F 50 A 85 GD –35; Pts 40
Most Starts: Corey Whelan (43)
Top Goalscorer: Nick Haughton (19)
Most Assists: Nick Haughton (7)
Clean Sheets: 6
Discipline: Ethan Mitchell (14Y 0R)
Pre-season Prediction: 8th
I’ve had a good feeling about Fylde since the end of last season and I think they will be in the mix for a top seven finish. A lot of this comes down to Beech, who has played an important role as Director of Football and then interim manager, creating a younger, more vibrant group. The football has been simplified, the team are fearless and forward thinking and the spine of last season’s team has stayed put. I see the Coasters getting off to a strong start thanks to the energy and quality of their performances and though they may tail off, they’ve got a chance of sticking in there.
Mid-season Prediction
Phillips showed last season at Hartlepool United that he can organise a team and get results but the challenge is tougher here, taking on a weaker squad with less experience and with a smaller budget to work with. Their goals against record is appalling. Yet they have done the hard part, escaping the bottom four. The youthful nature of the squad means Fylde are likely to remain inconsistent and endure the defensive issues that have cost them dearly this season already, but I think they will improve enough to stay out of the bottom four come the end of the season.
The Reality
My written predictions have a habit of annoying me at a later date because I've a tendency to spell out the obvious and not see it in front of my eyes. Fylde are young. They concede too many goals. Likely to be inconsistent. They were relegated. Duh.
Defensive issues plagued Fylde all season. It’s what did for Beech just eight games into the season, his side having conceded 18 goals. Kevin Phillips took the reins and his Fylde side let in 36 goals across 18 games. And while David Longwell did reduce those numbers, it was very much avoidance of the problem as the number of chances conceded remained similar. None of them could pick up consistent results, their best run of form being a six-game spell that saw them collected 11 points during which Phillips departed and was replaced by Longwell, his assistant.
What happened? David Longwell simply stated the squad wasn’t good enough and he’s not necessarily wrong. It’s not that there isn’t talent at Fylde – Nick Haughton remains one of the division’s finest while Ethan Mitchell and Ben Winterbottom have grown up during a tough year – but they always appeared to have one too many players learning on the job or out of position with balance and consistent selection rarely attainable.
Only four players managed to play at least two-thirds of minutes. Only four of their most used 14 players were aged between 24 and 29. Only five of those 14 players have played full seasons at this level or higher, four of those being in their 30’s. They never addressed issues in attack with wingers and attacking midfielders playing as many minutes leading the line as natural strikers, while the wide positions were problematic areas throughout the season. It took until early February to select the same centre-back pairing for ten or more games in a row. All this while four separate men managed the team for at least five matches (Nathan Delfouneso had a caretaker stint post-Beech).
What surprised me most is that these issues were apparent almost from the get go but never truly resolved. Kevin Phillips made two additions in his first three months, those being the temporary additions of youngsters Max Bardell and Will Hugill. Signings arrived in the form of Dan Sassi, Chris Stokes and Ashley Boatswain in January but none had much of an impact for various reasons while Kain Adom made his debut in mid-February and finished the season on loan at Sutton United. Others in the relegation battle were finding an edge while Fylde were seemingly retreating and hoping to find the solution internally where it was apparent it wasn’t available.
“Ultimately, we, (in the main me) have either made bad decisions or allowed others to do so, resulting in the worst summer recruitment since I became involved” were the words of David Haythornthwaite at the end of the season. It’s hard to say more than that.
The Stats
Fortunately for Fylde, Ebbsfleet United exist. It means that they sit 23rd for a number areas, including most defeats (28), fewest goals (50), most conceded (85), home record (joint), away record, most home losses, second half record, number of games failed to score (19), least time leading (12.9%) and worst xGD. They rank bottom for draws (7), fewest goal away from home (15), fewest clean sheets (6, joint), finishing matches (5-14 record in the final 10 minutes) and percentage of overall points attained v bottom 4 sides. And they’re third bottom for attendance, goals conceded at home (39), goals conceded away from home (46), fewest second half goals scored (25), highest quality of chance conceded per shot and PPDA.
So what have we learned? There is the obvious stuff. But Fylde had stylistic and mentality issues too. Their inability to pick up points on the road (0.7PPG better at home than away) or keep clean sheets. Their ability to press is poor and they didn’t just leave themselves open to concede chances but they conceded high quality chances regularly with those issues creating a scenario where they finished matches really poorly.
Yet Kevin Phillips stated that Fylde could beat anybody on their day and he wasn’t wrong. Fylde collected 28% of their points against top seven teams, the second highest in the division. They collected 53% of their points against top half teams, the highest in the division. But they won just one of 13 matches away from home against the bottom 14, scoring six goals, and collected five points from a possible 18 against the sides that also came down with them, including 4-1 and 4-0 losses against Dagenham and Redbridge and Maidenhead United. It’s those records that cost them most.
What Happens Next?
I suppose the easiest thing to do is provide the link to the chairman’s end of season update: https://afcfylde.co.uk/club-update-david-haythornthwaite/
What do I think will happen? It’s tough to say. My natural inclination is to believe that Fylde will see a fair overhaul to an underperforming squad and challenge towards the top of the National League North. They are full-time, will have one of the bigger budgets in the division, it’s more than plausible that they hold on to Nick Haughton (though he has been linked to Rochdale) and they should see a decent enough overhaul of the squad.
But there is little denying that in a division that remains very competitive, new gaffer Craig Mahon and new Director of Football Stewart Mairs have a big job on their hands if they are to achieve an immediate return.
Aldershot Town
Position: 16th
Record: P 46; W 14 D 15 L 17; F 69 A 83 GD –14; Pts 57
Most Starts: Marcus Dewhurst (43)
Top Goalscorer: Josh Barrett (16)
Most Assists: James Henry (7)
Clean Sheets: 7
Discipline: Theo Widdrington (15Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 7th
Aldershot were a real wildcard last term, finishing 8th with a negative goal difference and sitting high in the league for goals scored, goals conceded and their disciplinary record. There’s been a decent turnover, they’ve lost some important players, are backing a number of players to step up and I can see the Shots settling down a bit. A few will step up, a few may need more time and the challenge is set for people to grow as leaders. A few less goals scored, a few less conceded and another positive campaign that sees them competing for a top seven finish.
Mid-season Prediction
Aldershot Town score goals, and I think it might be enough to keep their heads above water. My belief is that while I think the Shots will continue to be one of the more entertaining sides in the division with goals for and against tallies that will rank towards the higher end of the division, they will settle a little. The first is that as form and fitness improves, combined with a number of new players having found their feet, they will chop and change less. The second is that 10 of their remaining 12 home games are against sides currently 10th or lower in the league table, including four of the five sides below them.
The Reality
I may have gotten a bit too excited in the summer (I’m still surprised I pitched them to finish so high). I think my mid-season prediction was spot on.
Provided my information is correct, between matchday 2 and matchday 23, Aldershot Town made 69 changes to their team across 22 matches, an average of 3.14 per match. Between matchday 24 and 39, Aldershot made 26 changes to their team in 16 matches, an average of 1.63. Tommy Widdrington made more than two changes to his team just four times in that period and it coincided with them being picking up 27 of their 57 points – that's 47.4% of their points total in 34.8% of the matches. As for those home matches, they beat Hartlepool United, Solihull Moors, Gateshead and AFC Fylde while earning points against Woking, Braintree Town, Tamworth, Dagenham and Redbridge and Ebbsfleet United. A little skewed towards beating the better sides rather than those that were in and around them, but they earned the points and it played an important role.
The truth is, despite finishing eight places lower, there wasn’t a whole lot of difference between Aldershot’s 2024-25 and 2023-24 campaign. The Shots conceded the same number of goals and scored only five fewer than the previous season. Their home form was better than their away form by a fair distance. If there was a big difference, it was the underlying data with the quality of chances created far lower than the previous campaign, while their defensive numbers remained amongst the poorest in the league.
The defensive issues is perhaps an easy one to answer – a lack of stability. Widdrington managed to field the same back three for no more than four games in a row and used all of the following combinations to start matches:
A.Jones - Menayese – Byrd
A.Jones - Ellison – Jenkins
Armitage – Ellison – Woodhouse
Armitage – Laing - Woodhouse
Armitage – Jenkins – Scott
Armitage – Maghoma – Scott
Armitage – Maghoma – Woodhouse
Armitage – Mullins - Woodhouse
Armitage – Woodhouse – Scott
Byrd – Ellison – A.Jones
Byrd – Maghoma – Ellison
Byrd – Maghoma – Harfield
Byrd – Maghoma – Jenkins
Ellison – Maghoma – Scott
Jenkins – Maghoma – Harfield
Laing – Ellison - Woodhouse
Mullins – Menayese – Byrd
Menayese – Ellison - Scott
Menayese – Maghoma - Byrd
Menayese – Maghoma – Harfield
Menayese – Maghoma - Scott
When you play a system that largely requires players to go man-for-man across the pitch and leaves so much space in behind for players to defend 1v1 or cover, the lack of consistency is clearly an issue. But the bravery of their style also means they can get their best players on the ball regularly and it has paid off. Widdrington has often talked about focusing on what players can do rather than what they can’t and it has absolutely got the best out of Josh Barrett and James Henry, who are technically above the level even if their bodies aren’t in the finest shape these days. Meanwhile Jack Barham finished up with 15 goal contributions, Ryan Jones 12, Tyler Frost 9 and Cameron Hargreaves 8.
The season hasn’t gone as many hoped before a ball was kicked off, particularly on the back of coming so close last season, but they finish up in mid-table and with a Wembley win to their name. It’s been another decent season for a club with one of the lower budgets in the division and the challenge will be to improve again next season.
A final note, it hasn’t been an easy campaign for Widdrington given his personal health issues. I’m sure he and his family enjoyed their day at Wembley and hopefully he is recovering well.
The Stats
First, the positives. Their 69 goals scored was at least eight more than any other bottom half side. They were the most entertaining side to watch in the league with an average of 3.3 goals total per game, 63% of their matches containing 3 or more goals and both teams scoring in 67% - all divisional highs. Their goals vs xG was the biggest difference in the division as they defied their chance creation. And they were one of three sides to collect a higher percentage of points against top half sides compared to bottom half sides, all with the third youngest team in the league.
The negatives? Only the bottom two conceded more goals. Their xGD was the was third poorest in the league. Their xGA to goals conceded difference was the second biggest in the division. They created the second lowest quality of chance per shot and conceded the second highest quality of chance per shot.
What Happens Next?
I think the model for Aldershot Town is clear now. Find talent on the cheap and look to sell them for decent money that allows them to recruit to a slightly higher level the following summer while supplementing talent with a few experienced lads. Clearly, it’s a challenge that isn’t as simple as it sounds – or that Football Manager may make it seem.
How next season unfolds unquestionably relies on the quality of their recruitment this summer and perhaps more importantly whether they can find players ready to hit the ground running rather than needing more time to develop before they show their potential. There are a few reliables still in the building in the form of Dewhurst, Hargreaves, Widdrington, Barrett and Henry and the challenge will be building on that with the kind of quality that almost took them to the play-offs the previous campaign.
Do they manage it? It’s a fair bit of change in key areas, so my initial thoughts are lower to mid-table but I’m open-minded.
Altrincham
Position: 9th
Record: P 46; W 17 D 13 L 16; F 68 A 62 GD +6; Pts 64
Most Starts: Alex Newby (42)
Top Goalscorer: Regan Linney (23)
Most Assists: Alex Newby (9)
Clean Sheets: 12
Discipline: Tom Crawford (12Y 2R)
Pre-season Prediction: 6th
I found Alty difficult to predict. It’s easy to see they’ve lost Conn-Clarke and assume that’s the end of their promotion hopes but as outlined above, it’s not that simple. They remain a very strong, settled outfit that know their strengths and still contain plenty of quality in the final third. And their business isn’t done yet. The loss of Esteva and potential loss of Parkinson and Sorvel, who will no doubt be courted, is difficult to predict from the outside. I’m backing them for another top seven finish. They could probably finish anywhere in the top ten.
Mid-season prediction
There are plenty of reasons to feel comfortable about Altrincham and their quest for back-to-back play-off finishes – they are already in the mix and still haven’t truly hit their stride. There is some work to do defensively but they have showcased an ability to keep clean sheets and improvement in that depart will be key for the period where goals to dry up, as I anticipate. Of all the sides in the chase for a play-off spot, I feel most comfortable about Alty making it.
The Reality
Reading the above, I felt pretty comfortable with my predictions... then I hit that last line.
It’s been an interesting season for Altrincham. On paper, a 9th place finish is decent for a club that lacks the financial power of others around them, especially given some of the internal changes across the summer that led to them having a quieter summer, not to mention the loss of their absolute superstar Chris Conn-Clarke.
Yet they recovered fairly quickly and between the end of August and mid-February, Phil Parkinson’s side lost just four of 26 league matches, remaining unbeaten at home during that time, scoring almost double what they conceded and cementing themselves as one of the best six or seven sides in the division. They also created another National League superstar in Regan Linney, who finished up with 30 goal contributions and his own goal of the season compilation, while allowing other talent to develop such as Charlie Olson, Lewis Baines – who was made captain – and George Wilson.
In football, you are often only as good as your last game, or most recent games, and that’s where it all fell flat. Altrincham were probably the only club to come out in support of the Premier League Cup and the money on offer but fell in the semi-finals. They lost nine of their last 15 league matches, including losses to AFC Fylde and Wealdstone at home. What had looked to be a promising campaign died at the most important stage and in the most brutal of fashions.
Why did it go wrong? For Phil Parkinson, it was largely injuries. There is some credence to that. They lost goalkeeper Craig Ross and left-back Eddy Jones to ACL’s. Charlie Olson missed a stretch. Continued upheaval in midfield was unhelpful with Isaac Marriott, Elliot Osborne, George Wilson and Tom Crawford having their issues. Joe Nuttall and Jake Bickerstaff were having issues remaining fit in attack and Matty Kosylo missed much of the campaign. Parky spoke about how his players were trying to play themselves back into fitness at a key stage of the season. He also spoke of the pitch – not unlike a few managers this season – at home which has some credence given the style of football they want to play.
I think if you had offered Altrincham fans a 9th place finish before the season began, most would hope for a little more but perhaps be understanding of their situation and be pleased that they had remained in and around the play-off positions for a second consecutive season in non-league's top tier. However, the way their season crumbled towards the end for a myriad of reasons will be hard to take.
The Stats
Altrincham were a pretty entertaining side to watch. They ranked third for most goals total per game away from home (3.26) and over 2.5 goals total were scored in 63% of their matches, a joint high with Aldershot Town. There was fun to be had stylistically too with Alty completing the second most successful dribbles per 90 minutes (17) and suffering the most fouls (548).
Speaking of style, there was good and bad to be found in their season. They were the fastest starters in the league, registering 11 goals scored and 3 conceded in the opening 10 minutes of matches but they also failed to win a game in which they conceded first. They created the third lowest quality of chance per shot in the division and ranked 22nd for xG against but sat 3rd for overperformance against their xG numbers behind Forest Green Rovers and York City – their individual quality showed. It helps that they did not concede more than 2 goals in a match at home, the only team in the National League to manage this.
The killer statistic for their season is likely to be the 33 points they collected against bottom half sides. This was the worst of top 10 sides by at least seven points and was the difference between them finishing in the top seven.
What Happens Next?
My inclination is to say more of the same.
Altrincham are in a good place. They’ve recently received additional investment into the football club which can hopefully help them reach the ambitions they have steadily grown towards. Phil Parkinson and Neil Sorvel remain in contract and sound as committed as ever to making the unthinkable happen at Alty. There will be some upheaval off the pitch with Director of Football Marc Tierney moving to Carlisle United but they also faced that last season with Rob Esteva stepping aside.
As for the squad itself, there will be a refresh of sorts. The losses of Regan Linney and Alex Newby are big with the attack in general decimated owing to departures or loans ending. However, 12 of their 14 most used footballers last season were aged between 23 and 29 with five of their most used seven sticking around, likely to form the spine of the team.
The tactical blueprint has been in place for years, Parkinson has shown an ability to adapt and the additions of Billy Sass-Davies, Sam Reed, Keaton Ward, James Gale and Jimmy Knowles mean much of the starting XI are already in place. They still need a little bit more but they are in a good spot heading into pre-season and there is no reason why they can’t aim for a second top seven finish in three years.
Barnet
Position: 1st
Record: P 46; W 31 D 9 L 6; F 97 A 38 GD +59; Pts 102
Most Starts: Anthony Hartigan (46)
Top Goalscorer: Callum Stead (19)
Most Assists: Anthony Hartigan (10)
Clean Sheets: 22
Discipline: Ryan Glover (9Y 0R)
Pre-season Prediction: 1st
I’ve gone back and forth on this but as the summer has gone on, I’ve gotten more confident that Barnet will do it. Looking at the squad written down, it’s easy to get spooked by the number of new signings, which could lead to some teething issues. But Brennan has a way of simplifying things. They conceded a few too many goals so they signed defenders. They lacked a wildcard and signed one. They lacked an energetic midfielder and found one. And they got it done early. Brennan will also get the backing he needs later in the season too. I think it’s their year.
Mid-season Prediction
The question is essentially: Are Barnet winning promotion? I could give pros and cons for every team involved at present but I predicted Barnet to win the title in the summer, they top the league after 22 matches and their underlying data is the best in the division. I’m predicting a title win.
The Reality
From the off, Barnet were the best team in the National League and won the National League title.
When Barnet lost three of their first four away matches, it was easy to get a little spooked. The same could be said for the back-to-back away losses against Solihull Moors and York City, conceding seven goals in the process. Or the wild 4-3 and 3-3 results against Dagenham and Redbridge and Sutton United, the latter one of four consecutive draws.
Dean Brennan is one of those managers whose interviews are must-watch because you never quite know which way he will go. Yet the one thing I have learned over the last few years is that whether he is picking up on the small crowds, making a point about his squad missing something, calling out his players or a single player, using the post-match to praise people, he always does it for a reason. He strikes the chord needed in order to keep people on their toes or ride a positive wave and it has been a key part of why Barnet have continued to perform to such a high standard across the season. And I think that has been the case this season more than those that have come before because he has felt more in control of his own destiny. He has been happier, more confident in those around him and that has shone through.
Yet while Brennan says the right things at the right times, he rarely says something he doesn’t believe and nothing said that more than the ruthless changes made during January when Nicke Kabamba and Nick Hayes were moved on in favour of Owen Evans and Lee Ndlovu. It was a surprise to some but it worked out as well as they could have hoped for, collecting 41 points from their next 15 matches and conceding just three goals in the process. Forest Green Rovers were stuttering. York City couldn’t quite keep pace. Barnet had learned from mistakes of recent years and stormed to the title.
That was the story of their title win. Learning from past mistakes. Growing together. Being ruthless when a ruthless approach was needed. Recruiting well over a long period. Being able to find consistency through the spine of the team and in the finish, they earned a promotion they thoroughly deserved.
The Stats
Barnet were the best side in the National League. Here are a number of statistics they topped the chart in: Most wins (31), most goals (97), fewest conceded (38), best home record (18-5-0), most goals at home (58), fewest goals conceded at home (15), most away goal (39, joint), best first half record, most first half goals (47), most points won after the 75th minute (13, joint), scored in 41 matches (joint high), scoring 3+ goals in matches (19), most clean sheets (22), conceding 1 or 0 goals (38), conceding 1 or 0 at home (22/23), most time spent leading (42.9%), least time behind (11.3%), best record coming from behind (1.45PPG from 11 games), fewest penalties conceded (2), most shots per game (12.9), most successful dribbles per game (18.7), best xG, best xGA, best xGD, best PPDA, most box entries (by over 150), most points v top 7 sides (24) and most points v top half sides (47, at least 8 more than any other side).
Barnet also ranked second for the following: best away record (13-4-6), most second half goals (50), best record in the final 10 minutes of matches (18 scored, 5 conceded), most penalties won (11), best discipline (71 yellows, 2 reds), most possession (62.9%), fewest fouls committed (9.5), xG difference (15.26 more goals scored than expected) and highest quality of chance per shot. And they were third for fewest away goals conceded (23), points lost after the 75th minute (3), percentage of touches in the box to touches in a game and PPDA against (the number of passes made per defensive action).
What I’m saying is, Barnet were really, really good in almost every facet of being a football team.
What Happens Next?
For the first time since 2017-18, Barnet will play in the EFL.
I’ve got no doubt Dean Brennan will do what Dean Brennan does and recruit early (I wrote this in May, they’ve since made five additions), making sure he’s got as much of his squad together as possible ahead of pre-season. He has been quick to sort out contract situations and the core of players remaining are capable of stepping up as a unit. That said, Brennan has generally been open as far as his recruitment process and I’m curious to see how this is adapted for his first ever season as a Football League manager, particularly as, for the first time in his career, he will have less autonomy to make changes outside of the transfer window.
I’m very confident Barnet will be in no relegation trouble at all. Top seven? I’m going to say not quite.
Boston United
Position: 19th
Record: P 46; W 15 D 10 L 21; F 54 A 67 GD –13; Pts 55
Most Starts: Jai Rowe (43)
Top Goalscorer: Jacob Hazel (13)
Most Assists: Jacob Hazel (6)
Clean Sheets: 10
Discipline: Jordan Richards (7Y 2R)
Pre-season Prediction: 23rd
Predicting four clubs to be relegated is never easy. Why Boston? I like the fact that they’ve kept the core from last season but continuing the same remarkable defensive record that set them up for promotion while also replacing that front two – who scored over half of their league goals between them – is tricky. I envisage some chopping and changing to the attack without truly settling on something and it will put pressure on the backline, perhaps akin to Kidderminster Harriers last season.
Mid-season Prediction
Graham Coughlan has a big job on his hands. His team need to score a few more, stop conceding so many and he’s got to make those improvements with either what he has been left with or by utilising a budget that is limited comparatively to most of the division, while also cutting the seven-point gap to survival as quickly as possible. And when I look at the other sides in the fight, I’m struggling to see exactly who Boston outperform. They may put up a brave fight, but I think relegation is more than likely.
The Reality
I’ve covered a lot of incredible survivals while following the National League. This is ]up there with the best, if not being the best.
On 22nd February, Boston United sat in 23rd place, ten points adrift of safety with 16 games left to play. They had won just five league matches and lost 17. A run to even catch up with those above them would be an impressive end to the season.
From that day onwards, only Barnet and York City would collect more points per game as The Pilgrims blasted their way to survival.
Ian Culverhouse started the season in charge after a fantastic run to play-off success the previous campaign but things didn’t go to plan. There was plenty of chopping and changing of personnel and formations and they couldn’t find anything consistent to run forward with. He lost his job with Boston second bottom and Graham Coughlan took the reins. Similar followed. He tried five or six different formations, added at least nine new players to varying degrees of success, the team suffered a couple of key injuries. They collected 10 points from his first 12 matches as he lamented his side being unable to make the right decisions in both boxes.
There was a sense that Coughlan was beginning to work out which players he could trust and on 18th February, he reverted to a three-at-the-back system, one he has often favoured. Brad Nicholson and Jimmy Knowles lined up in the XI. Across the next 17 matches, Coughlan would make just 14 changes to his starting XI as his side collected 35 points, winning 11 times. The back three was nicely balanced while the wing-backs were on the front foot and capable of delivering. The strikers were powerful and pulled defences apart and they utilised set-piece situations a lot better than they had previously. They cut out a lot of the daft goals they had conceded earlier in the season.
Arguably the most impressive aspect wasn’t just catching up with the chasing pack but continuing to perform when they were the side being chased. They responded to defeat v Hartlepool by thumping Southend United 3-0. They responded to defeat at Wealdstone by winning three on the bounce. Job done.
It’s never easy to truly understand the dynamics of how things play out behind the scenes prior to a run like Boston’s beginning. However, Coughlan, his coaching staff and the dressing room leaders deserve huge credit for putting everything they had into securing a survival that appeared almost impossible a couple of months earlier.
The Stats
The fun thing about Boston’s miraculous recovery is that they were still pretty poor for two-thirds of the season, meaning the numbers behind their campaign make them look relatively poor.
For example, Boston finished the season with the joint second worst home record (7-7-9). They had the third worst second half record and scored the second fewest second half goals (24). Boston failed to score in 16 of their league outings (joint third highest) and were one of just two teams to fail to score four goals during the National League campaign. They earned one penalty, a joint low, and it’s perhaps little surprise given their possession and PPDA against were both the third poorest in the league. It all suggests that their survival came, mostly, as a result of fast starts, exploiting space and learning how to defend as a unit while not having the ball.
Beating the teams in and around them will be important to their success next season. Boston were one of three sides to accrue a higher percentage of their points against top half sides compared to bottom half sides (51%) while no side outside of the bottom four collected fewer points against the bottom four – Boston didn’t beat any of them at home.
What Happens Next?
In March, Boston United announced that regardless of what division they were going to be in, they would be going to a full-time model.
https://www.bostonunited.co.uk/news/club-update--march-2025-2906222.html
So next season, they will be one of many full-time National League outfits looking to cement themselves in the division with an eye towards building for bigger and better things.
The budget is healthy. More opportunities are on the table. The challenge is being able to take advantage of those things and build on an experienced core and vastly improved mentality and confidence around the place. They should absolutely fancy themselves to compete at this level more consistently and the minimal aim should now be to avoid trouble after what became, ultimately, a successful season.
Braintree Town
Position: 17th
Record: P 46; W 15 D 11 A 20; F 51 A 59 GD –8; Pts 56
Most Starts: George Langston & Louie Annesley (42)
Top Goalscorer: Kyrell Lisbie (13)
Most Assists: Chay Cooper (6)
Clean Sheets: 14
Discipline: Marshall Miranda (16Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 21st
I’ve been pretty positive about Braintree Town this summer and I still want to back their survival. Harrop has clear ideas around what he wants to see and the recruitment appears to fit that. A lot of their signings were done early too, which could be important in implementing what he wants on the pitch as well as producing a positive dressing room culture. It’s simply the competition at the level. While the division doesn’t have a Wrexham or a Stockport County or Chesterfield, the floor for the sides at the level is probably as high as ever, and I don’t see Braintree avoiding the relegation battle. They have a chance but I’ve got to make a prediction and it’s 21st.
Mid-season Prediction
It’s hard not to think that things are now going to be very tough for Braintree Town. I’m not going to pretend to know too much about Pitt beyond what I can locate quickly enough online, but it’s a tough challenge for anybody to walk in and improve a team already performing at a decent level without getting the results while potentially needing to reduce the budget. I fear Braintree are more likely to drop than survive at this point.
The Reality
Braintree Town had a really fun summer from a neutrals point of view.
Those that won promotion to the National League were gone following the decision to move to a full-time programme with some seriously recognisable names arriving in the form of Inih Effiong, John Akinde, Matt Robinson, James Vennings and Jamal Fyfield. A couple of gambles were taken but on the whole, Angelo Harrop had built a squad with around 16 players that would clearly have what it took to perform at National League level.
In early December, Harrop left and it was a surprise those not in the know. The Iron were in and around the relegation zone but there was a clear fight about the group, only losing by more than one goal twice in their first 18 league matches – away at Oldham Athletic and Barnet – while continuing to pick up wins when they needed them. Then came the bombshell: chairman Lee Harding claiming the summer spending could have put them out of business (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c3vrk9q6y13o).
Oh.
Months on, I’m not entirely sure what to make of it. I don’t know exactly how things are run but the idea that the chairman of a football club, whose job presumably is to look after the growth and financial security of the football club in the short and long term, can pin the blame on somebody else for spending recklessly is baffling. If Harrop was asking for too much money, could you not just tell him... no? Was there not an accountant grabbing them both and saying “we can’t afford this”?
Whatever the situation, Braintree Town needed to cut the budget. A few players left. A new manager arrived in the form of Steve Pitt, a former assistant at the club who, at least from the information I can get hold of, has not managed at this level previously. They had one striker on the books. There was a required change in net. The squad was thin to the point people were playing out of position. They filled the bench just once in 2025 and were calling up bodies from a youth set-up that doesn’t really exist in order to fill the squad out for emergencies.
And yet, from 5th December 2024, the date Steve Pitt was appointed as managed, to 5th May, the final day of the season, Braintree Town were the 10th best team in the National League having won 10 of their 25 league matches.
I can’t pretend to know exactly how bad things were behind the scenes financially. I can’t pretend to know how much the players were affected by ongoings. But you can see when a group have been galvanised by a situation. They were written off by many, including myself, and threw those predictions back in our faces. The lack of options created a simplicity around selection. Players dug in, did the hard yards, played with their backs against the wall and thrived in the situation. They beat all of the top three at home while earning results against Southend United, Gateshead, Eastleigh, Sutton United, Hartlepool United and Solihull Moors.
The pub team from Essex had survived and survived relatively comfortably in the finish. A job well done to all involved.
The Stats
Braintree Town’s survival was one based on fine margins and being hard to beat. Their National League matches contained the third fewest goals total per game on average (2.39) with an average of 1.7 goals being scored in matches at Cressing Road.
They did have trouble in front of goal over the campaign. They scored the joint fourth fewest goals (51), second fewest goals at home (31), fewest second half goals (23), scored 3+ goals on 3 occasions (second lowest) and did not score more than 2 goals in any home matches. The flip side is that they were difficult to beat. They conceded 18 goals at home (third fewest) while the 59 goals conceded across the season was the best outside of the top seven (joint with Woking). They finished the season by conceding 1 or 0 in the 22 matches they played in 2025.
Fast starts were important. No side scored more goals in the first 10 and first 15 minutes of matches (joint with Altrincham). They had an impressive record against top 7 sides, collecting 27% of their points against the best the league had to offer (third highest). They showcased their dirty side by committing the joint second most fouls per game (12.1). The hope will be to build on a season of survival and attract more supporters – their 1.15k average attendance is the smallest in the National League.
What Happens Next?
It’s 22nd May when I write this and my early thoughts are that Braintree Town are favourites for the drop.
The Iron have the smallest attendance in the division. The owner has admitted costs need cutting. There will be outgoings to cut costs further and the replacements are likely to be signed with a smaller budget. They haven’t been able to fill their squad for most of the season and a lot of their recruitment since the summer has been short-term stopgaps or cheap additions to help them out.
I’m not in the business of writing anybody off at this stage of the summer. Non-league is a curious world and there is a long old way to go until the first whistle of the 2025-26 campaign is blown – the picture could change quite a lot. Braintree have also defied the odds on a number of occasions in recent years and that includes last season.
It’s a big summer for Steve Pitt, whose experience as a Director of Football at local clubs could prove handy in putting together a competitive squad. He did a brilliant job after arriving in December and I wouldn’t put it past the club to produce again. However, there is no denying it’s going to be very difficult.
Dagenham and Redbridge
Position: 21st
Record: P 46; W 12 D 16 L 18; F 61 A 62 GD –1; Pts 52
Most Starts: Paul Kalambayi (39)
Top Goalscorer: Josh Rees (16)
Most Assists: Ryan Hill (7)
Clean Sheets: 10
Discipline: Jake Hessenthaler (7Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 13th
Dagenham and Redbridge did plenty of good work last season rectifying the culture and togetherness of the group. The new ownership haven’t walked in and ripped what has worked up, instead offering support to Strevens. I think the additions at centre-back and in midfield compliment the experience already available and they have a plethora of options in attack. I don’t think is the season Daggers make a major push, but I do see them improving and moving up the table slightly.
Mid-season Prediction
More of the same. I see Strevens likely to find himself papering over the cracks until the end of the season when issues can be addressed, provided they are. That means a bottom half finish and all parties needing to agree on how they see the future. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big change or two, particularly given the rumours swirling around at present.
The Reality
There’s a big difference between having knowledge of what you have seen and are seeing compared to the reality of what is going on behind the scenes.
It was 23rd December when I wrote my mid-season preview and my understanding was that there were a couple of issues behind the scenes but Strevens would be more than capable of papering the cracks and getting something sorted while things iron themselves out. I’ve not really come across the idea that the Dagenham ownership are actively causing problems for the club, even if there has been fair frustration over the football side of things and general communication, so I’m assuming that they will be fine.
Three days later, Braintree beat them 4-2 at Victoria Road and Strevens is sacked. But it gets worse. Elliot Justham is gone by early February amid continued contractual issues. Tom Eastman gets injured. Michael Hector signs only to quickly become a key figure in Ballers League and isn’t seen again. A number of signings have been made in the wake of Strevens’ departure, mostly young lads with minimal first-team experience. Connor Parsons signed on New Year’s Day only to leave on 4th February. Fan favourite Junior Morias was pushed out of the door following a loan and promptly scored twice against them a month later for Woking. Key injuries continued. The team failed to win any of Lewis Young’s first 12 matches as permanent boss, losing eight.
Ah yes, Lewis Young. The noise is that he was going to follow Strevens out of the door on moral grounds only to sign a long-term deal to take Strevens’ job. That he aligned himself with Sporting Director James King, a man who started the season at Ebbsfleet United – yes, we know how that turned out – and pitched up at Dagenham and Redbridge only to be removed by mid-March owing to noisy protests from supporters over numerous failings didn’t help. And where do we begin with the Marwan Serry debacle? Not to mention the fans’ forum around the same time.
King left Dagenham and Redbridge on 18th March and if there was any question of how important that was, it was answered by the players who dug out a 1-0 win on the road at FC Halifax Town. That win would spark a nine-match end of season run in which Lewis Young’s side would collect 18 points. They would concede more than one goal just once – away at Gateshead – and thumped Altrincham 6-1 on the penultimate day to put their fate in their own hands.
The problem was that that win over Altrincham was just the second time the team had scored more than once since a 2-0 win over Ebbsfleet United on New Year’s Day. Young had found some consistency with the rest of the XI but form and fitness was lacking in the final third and goals were hard to come by. It left them needing a win on final and despite creating chance after chance late on, the best they could muster was a draw. Wealdstone won. Dagenham and Redbridge were relegated.
The angering aspect of this relegation is that it was so avoidable. This wasn't a part-time or low budget club unable to beat expectations or a big club with financial issues clouding them. This was a sporting failure. This was a club that made bad decision after bad decision and they suffered the worst possible fate.
The Stats
Dagenham and Redbridge were relegated with a goal difference of –1. This is ludicrously small for a relegated team – it was the best goal difference outside of the top 9 – and I’ve gone back through previous years to see if this has been matched. The closest goal difference for a relegated club since 1990 is Altrincham, who were relegated with a goal difference of –9 in 1999/2000.
The Daggers’ survival hopes lay on account of their ability to score goals in front of their home fans – their 44 was the joint third most goals scored at home in the league, no doubt helped by the 13 they put past Altrincham and Gateshead. The Daggers created the third highest quality of chance per shot taken, perhaps helped by the number of penalties they won (10, joint third most) and opponents sent off (7, second most).
So where did it all go wrong? Mentality, perhaps. They had issues on the road, their record (3-10-10) being the third worst in the league with their 17 goals the second fewest. They scored two goals on two occasions away from home and never more than two. No side lost more points from the 75th minute of a game (19, the most by at least 6). They had the joint third worst points per game record when conceding first, collecting four points from those 18 matches. And they collected the joint third fewest points against bottom half sides (27, ahead of the bottom two). Given the Daggers spent 54.7% of their time drawing (second highest), some of those statistics are brutal and show how frail the group were at times.
What Happens Next?
James King is gone. Marwan Serry is gone. Lewis Young has been sacked post-season. Tom Eastman and Josh Rees have departed. We are likely going to get wholesale changes in East London this summer and it is probably warranted as the club attempt to turn things around following an awful campaign.
Since writing the above in May, the club have employed Lee Bradbury as manager and Jerry Gill as his assistant. Corey Panter, Reggie Young and Sam Howes have arrived with most of the elder statesmen (Eastman, Hector, Hessenthaler, Ling, Rees) departing, suggesting a big change in direction.
The concern is that as of late June, there is still a lot of work to be done while many other clubs are getting big business done and have settled squads. It shouldn’t be underestimated how strong the National League South is next season with Chelmsford City, Dorking Wanderers, Eastbourne Borough, Ebbsfleet United, Hornchurch, Maidenhead United, Maidstone United, Torquay United and Worthing amongst those looking to kick on.
The Daggers are full-time and will have one of the biggest budgets in the division, so the expectation is that they will challenge towards the top. But with one automatic promotion place up for grabs and the play-offs a lottery, there is every reason to believe their return to the top tier of non-league football is not a foregone conclusion.
Eastleigh
Position: 13th
Record: P 46; W 14 D 17 L 15; F 58 A 61 GD –3; Pts 59
Most Starts: Joe McDonnell (46)
Top Goalscorer: Tyrese Shade (14)
Most Assists: Tyrese Shade (6)
Clean Sheets: 12
Discipline: Ludwig Francillette & Richard Brindley (9Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 22nd
Eastleigh have some excellent players and will always be a danger to opponents because of that. They had some big lows last season. I have reservations over their business with two stepping into full-time football, three having limited senior appearances, one doesn’t appear to have an obvious role and the other has played 30+ games once in five years. Of the rest, it looks like the spine will contain a number of players in their 30’s which does little to dispel my concerns over mobility. I can’t say I have a handle on Kelvin Davis as a manager and it could go either way. I’m not convinced Eastleigh go down and 22nd could have been one of seven sides. I just feel a little less convinced Eastleigh stay up above those other teams.
Mid-season Prediction
More of the same. I think Eastleigh slide a little further down the table and end up in the bottom half, but I don’t foresee them being in a position where their league status comes under threat. My hope as a neutral is that one or two of the younger players start to shine – I'm looking at Tyrese Shade, Angel Waruih and Noah Boutin.
The Reality
I’m still really frustrated that I plumped for Eastleigh to go down ahead of Ebbsfleet United at the last minute. Fuming with myself.
This felt like a very Eastleigh season in truth. Unable to do enough to challenge the play-off positions but more than capable of avoiding danger with relative comfort. They had some good moments such as starting the season with four wins in a row, going on a run of 3 losses in 17 and winning three in a week in February but also spiralled with runs of 2 in 13 and 14, the latter season ending. Factor in those runs containing so many draws and you find a side that weren’t easy to beat but not always threatening either.
It wasn’t always pretty. Eastleigh were a pretty uncompromising outfit at times, direct and with a tendency to focus on being hard to beat rather than looking to be progressive. They were a side that relied heavily on set-piece situations – as proven by Ludwig Francillette’s output in the final third – while older heads such as Paul McCallum, Chris Maguire and Jake Taylor all chipped in with plenty of goal contributions.
However, while the average age of the team per game only dropped by 0.1, it felt as though there was a slight change in approach. For starters, eight of Eastleigh’s most used 10 players were aged 30 or over by the end of the previous league campaign, a number that dropped to five this time around with four of the others being 26 or younger. Francillette played a role but Tyrese Shade stepped up as the main man in attack while Angel Waruih and Noa Boutin showed there is a pathway for younger players to step up at Eastleigh.
A frustrating and almost nothing kind of campaign on the face of it, but Eastleigh may just find themselves becoming a little more serious.
The Stats
As noted in the above, Eastleigh drew quite a few games – 17 to be exact, the joint third most in the division behind Hartlepool United and Woking. This perhaps isn’t a huge surprise given the Spitfires tended to start fast and finish slow – they had the 6th best first half record in the National League and 4th worst second half record while winning just four points after the 75th minute of matches. Also, their games were fairly low margin with the Spitfires scoring 3 or more goals on four occasions, joint third fewest, but also conceded 3 or more goals on four occasions, joint second fewest.
Stylistically, there is a lot to unpack. Eastleigh were powerful and aggressive in their work and often crossed the line, their record of 113 yellow cards and six reds the worst in the division. Kelvin Davis’ side won ten penalties, joint third most, but also scored the most own goals (4). They had the joint second fewest shots per game (8.4), completed the second fewest successful dribbles (11.2) and had the fourth worst PPDA, suggesting they weren’t exactly fun to follow but were effective in their work.
Eastleigh were a side capable of beating the sides beneath them and incapable of getting sufficient results against those above. Just three of their 15 losses came against bottom half teams with 69% of their points accrued against such opposition. They were unbeaten against the bottom seven and collected 20 points from the relegated clubs, joint third most. However, the flip side is that their eight points won against top seven sides was the joint third fewest.
What Happens Next?
Eastleigh are in a decent spot. Their manager has been in place over a year, the club are settled at boardroom level, they have an experienced leadership group and younger players starting to step up and are quite comfortable financially at the level.
Recruitment is once again the obvious things – and they did a decent enough job last season on that front – but it will be interesting to see whether Kelvin Davis can take the team to the next level too in terms of more quality in possession and being more on the front foot out of possession. Joe McDonnell is the most notable absentee and has been replaced by Nick Townsend while Maidstone United pair Temi Eweka and Aaron Blair step up a level.
There’s no reason why Eastleigh can’t crack the top 10 next year, but I would like to see what the rest of their recruitment looks like.
Ebbsfleet United
Position: 24th
Record: P 46; W 3 D 13 L 30; F 38 A 98 GD –60; Pts 22
Most Starts: Mark Cousins (43)
Top Goalscorer: Aaron Cosgrave (8)
Most Assists: George Moncur (3)
Clean Sheets: 7
Discipline: Toby Edser (11Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 19th
While putting together my predictions, I’ve had Ebbsfleet bouncing all across the bottom half of the table. I have concerns around consistency with a number of new signings coming in on the back of difficult campaigns owing to form and injury, particularly in defence. The Fleet only have four players start 30 or more games last term and we may see similar figures. There is quality, there is depth, there are a few more round pegs in round holes and they probably won’t have to rely on short-term stopgaps. They should have enough, but I’m not sure it will be too pretty.
Mid-season Prediction
To reach 50 points, Ebbsfleet United will need to achieve 1.78 points per game. Or to put it another way, they need to be the 4th or 5th best performing team in the National League across the second half of the season to even give themselves a chance of survival. And given the mess he (Josh Wright) inherits, I can’t see Ebbsfleet finishing anywhere other than inside the bottom four, most likely bottom.
The Reality
The damage was done in the summer.
Danny Searle was given the manager’s position following an excellent spell as interim during which he helped The Fleet maintain their position in the National League. He brought in his staff – including one James King – and what was followed was, for lack of a better word, crap.
Searle changed formation for the new season, moving away from the three-at-the-back system that had been common in recent years and played 4-3-3, a shape that immediately highlighted the flaws present in a team that was ageing and lacked mobility. Despite Searle discussing having more round pegs for round holes, too many players found themselves playing out of position. A high volume of personnel changes were made game to game and Searle and his staff were removed after seven winless matches, the team earning a single point having scored just four goals and conceded 18.
Harry Watling took things on from there. Young manager. Big ideas. He spoke of clarity and work ethic rather than drilling down into tactical blueprints and he arrived as Ebbsfleet won their first match. And yet, it got worse.
Why? CEO Damian Irvine stated Watling “couldn’t get on top of the job” which was the kind way of putting it. Not necessarily wrong, either. Watling had ideas he wanted to implement but every time they took a step forward, the team took two steps back and the ex-QPR coach was brutally honest in his assessments, talking early about how the team find new ways to shoot themselves in the foot to stating he “had seen enough” a month a half in and wanted change.
Change was part of the problem, however. Watling couldn’t settle on a shape or formation and averaged 3.25 changes to the starting XI during his 13 matches in charge. Of the signings made during his brief spell, most were lads that needed to rebuild fitness having been out of the game and didn’t lower the average age of the team. For the most part, it wasn’t a lack of effort but an inability to change the narrative from a side that couldn’t get over the line.
After 13 matches, one win, eight defeats, 11 goals scored, 28 conceded and a humiliating loss to local rivals Maidstone United in the cup, Harry Watling was gone.
Josh Wright was announced as stepping in and quietly took the full-time position, ending his career as a footballer in the process. David Kerslake stuck around as his assistant while Colin Gordon was appointed Head of Football.
The Fleet were basically relegated by mid-December. They would remain the worst side in the division from that point onwards, collecting 13 points from 25 matches and averaging two goals conceded per game. However, Wright spoke with an honesty and vulnerability that seemed to galvanise people and while they weren’t playing for anything than pride, there was an increased application and improved attitude on the pitch. Wright opted for a simpler formation and shape, kept a smaller group of players together and introduced younger bodies to the group.
They got their moment. Ebbsfleet beat AFC Fylde 1-0 in mid-March to earn just a second league win of the season, a game or two before their relegation was officially confirmed. They also beat Sutton United 4-1 to collect what would be their final points of the league campaign.
This was an embarrassment of a season from start to finish but at least ended with something to cling on to moving forward.
The Stats
Here are a list of areas in which Ebbsfleet United were the worst team in the National League. Wins (3); losses (30); goals scored (38); goals conceded (98); goal difference (-60); home record (3-7-13); home goals scored (18); home goals conceded (41); away record (0-6-17); away goals conceded (57); first half record; second half record; first half goals scored (12); points won after the 75th minute (2); games failed to score in (22); scoring 3+ goals (2); goals in first 15 minutes (0); home goals in first 20 minutes (0); first goal scored (7); time leading (6.8%); time trailing (41.5%); record when scoring first; record when conceding first; penalties conceded (10); shots per game (7.5); xGD; box entries.
Elsewhere, Ebbsfleet United were the oldest team in the division based on average age of players used (28.9), which is impressive given they used 44 players, the most second most in the division. Ebbsfleet collected as many points against top half sides than they did against bottom half teams.
What Happens Next?
Change. Josh Wright has the keys to the kingdom and his job is to make changes to the squad in order to commit to a promotion push in 2025/26 as part of what is shaping up to be the most competitive National League South division ever. Their retained list showed nine players as being in contract with a couple of others since signing terms and 12 being officially released, suggesting a decent turnover in playing staff. Ben Coker and Kwesi Appiah are the high-profile additions to date.
It’s tough to say exactly how they will fare in terms of the promotion race but Wright having got his foot in the door before pre-season and knowing what he wants and needs gives them an opportunity. I would expect a top seven finish.
FC Halifax Town
Position: 6th
Record: P 46; W 19 D 13 L 14; F 50 A 46 GD +4; Pts 70
Most Starts: Adam Senior (46)
Top Goalscorer: Jamie Cooke (7)
Most Assists: Florent Hoti (5)
Clean Sheets: 17
Discipline: Jamie Cooke (9Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 15th
It’s part of the National League table predicting process to be down on The Shaymen after the departure of a number of key players / leaders, which leaves them short on paper and relying on one or two new signings plus others already at the club ready to step up only to see them be hard to beat, organised and capable of winning football matches on their way to a top half finish. I've had them all over the bottom half this summer and much lower than 15th, but as we reach the start of the season, I feel comfortable that they’re in decent shape and should comfortably retain their spot in the National League. I think they’ve addressed key losses, have players ready to step up and will do what Halifax Town do.
Mid-season Prediction
I’m confident they remain in the top half. Their body of work over a long period tells me they have every chance of finishing in the top seven. Will they? If the rumours of Scott High returning are true, I’d feel more confident. Either way, they will be in the conversation come the final few games, I feel.
The Reality
They did what FC Halifax Town do and proved almost the entire National League community wrong by finishing in the top seven for the second season in a row.
Chris Millington has been up against it as Halifax boss. He has been working with one of the smallest budgets in the division since replacing Pete Wild and the modus operandi has been to develop players over time to a point where they are capable of playing at a higher level. They lost key men in the form of Jamie Stott, Jack Hunter, Kane Thompson-Sommers and Tylor Golden the previous summer as well as the experienced Luke Summerfield and Jordan Keane. Throughout the 2024-25 season, Millington fielded just three players aged 27 or older – goalkeeper Sam Johnson, striker Billy Waters and Josh Emmanuel.
Another big problem was the pitch at The Shay. There was minimal home advantage, his young squad often playing on a cabbage patch pitch with Millington regularly acknowledging the problem, including his need to take players out of the starting XI to look after developing bodies at home. And it didn’t help with an injury situation that meant only two players managed 75% of available minutes and only Adam Senior was able to start more than 33 games as an outfielder. And then you consider talk around whether Halifax will be able to compete in the end of season play-offs due to the Shay being sold by the council to Huddersfield Giants owner Ken Davy.
Yet Millington and his staff focused on what they could do. They beat Barnet on opening day and from mid-September, they sat between 5th and 11th in the league table, always involved in the play-off race. Key to their eventual 6th place finish was a mid-season run of 20 games in which they won 11 and lost three, taking points off each of the top three away from home in the process. They were able to find some consistency in selection at points with Adam Senior and Will Smith regulars in defence, Ryan Galvin and Angelo Cappello switching at left-back / left wing-back and Scott High and Jack Evans forming a midfield partnership for a period.
But they found themselves limping over the line when it mattered most. I’m not normally one to give credence to injuries but fans had every reason to feel aggrieved as goalkeeper Sam Johnson – who hadn't missed a league game since 2017/18 – was struck down along with Will Smith, Scott High, Lewis Leigh, Jack Evans, Festus Arthur, Jo Cummings, Max Wright and Adan George. Billy Waters and Andrew Oluwabori were long gone and their late-season additions to help get them over the line were two 20-year-olds and a 21-year-old with minimal first-team experience. The cycle continues.
Oldham Athletic away. Play-off eliminator. After 12 minutes, they were 3-0 down. Millington made a double substitution on 16 to try and salvage some pride and admitted afterwards that he selected a team he felt could play with more energy but the lack of physicality killed them against an experienced, powerful Oldham side. Season done.
The Stats
FC Halifax Town weren’t a particularly enjoyable side to watch for the neutral – not for the first time. Their 46 goals conceded was the fifth best in the division behind the top four while their 50 goals scored was the joint second lowest in the league with AFC Fylde. Their matches contained the fewest goals per game total (2.09), second fewest goals per game total at home (2) and joint third fewest goals per game away (2.17). Both teams scored in 43% of matches, joint second lowest. They conceded 3 or more goals on just four occasions, joint second best. Only two sides scored fewer than Halifax’s 22 at home.
As noted, Halifax had issues at home so it was important they impressed on the road. No side had a bigger difference of points accrued away from home against home, the Shaymen earning 0.26 points per game more on the road. They conceded the joint fewest goals away from home (22) and had the third best away record (10-8-5) behind the top two.
Unsurprisingly, Chris Millington’s team were the youngest in the division based on minutes played (24.8). That led to a fearlessness that had its pros and cons, Halifax having the fourth best PPDA, being the second most fouled team and seeing seven opponents sent off, also second highest. However, they also conceded nine penalties, which was joint second highest. A major issue was their ability to score, their quality of chance per shot the lowest in the division while they ranked second bottom for box entries and bottom for box entries per touch of the football.
What Happens Next?
I’m concerned by what happens next for FC Halifax Town.
It’s no surprise to see that players have departed with Adam Senior, Jack Evans and Ryan Galvin the latest in a long line of Halifax players in recent years to step into the EFL but Chris Millington’s decision to depart is a big blow. This doesn't feel like when Pete Wild departed and his assistant and fellow coaching staff stepped into the fray. This feels like a body blow.
Adam Lakeland has taken the baton and he faces a tough task getting Halifax to punch above their weight once more – at least in budget if not size of club. The primary positive to date is confirmation that the pitch is going to be fixed but there remains an awful lot of work to be done with regards to the squad. I’m reserving judgement for now.
Forest Green Rovers
Position: 3rd
Record: P 46; W 22 D 17 L 7; F 69 A 42 GD +27; Pts 83
Most Starts: Jamie Robson & Adam May (46)
Top Goalscorer: Christian Doidge (12)
Most Assists: Kyle McAllister (7)
Clean Sheets: 16
Discipline: Sean Long (9Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 2nd
I’ve chopped and changed my title winners between Barnet and Forest Green Rovers. I’ve backed the former but it remains tight. I envisage Forest Green being a different animal this season, a team that learns how to win again, learns how to hold on to leads, manage football matches and do the ugly stuff much better. They will be solid defensively, will have obvious outlets and should improve their set-piece record. I think Cotterill will get the backing to add one or two more through the season when necessary too, which could play a key role. I’m confident they finish in the top three and it should be tight towards the top.
Mid-season Prediction
They’ll be in the conversation for the title and certainly for the top three. While their underlying numbers aren’t as exciting as others, there is a lot of experience and knowhow in and around the Forest Green dressing room which means you can rely on them to turn tight games in their favour and continue doing the basics right. I’m not going to predict a title win. I think they stay in the top three.
The Reality
It started so well.
On 16th November, Forest Green Rovers topped the division. They had had a strong summer on the face of it with Steve Cotterill reducing the size of the squad, adding players from the same or higher levels with plenty of experience. Improved dressing room culture. And they flew out of the traps, collecting 40 points from their opening 18 matches to sit at the top of the National League table, beating York City to reach that point.
The campaign didn’t go to plan from there. Having won 12 of their opening 18, Cotterill’s side would win just 10 of the next 28 and collected 15 and 22 fewer points than the two teams they were hoping to challenge for the title.
It was a slow burn. That win against York was the seventh of a 19-match unbeaten run that would finish with seven draws from the final 12. The unbeaten run ended with defeat at Braintree Town and from thereon, Forest Green would produce mid-table form, collecting 21 points from 16 matches.
And then onto the play-offs where they faced off against Southend United in a topsy-turvy affair that outshone the shambles of a Europa League final with a fairly entertaining, drama filled semi-final only to fall short on penalties.
My primary thoughts are that the difference between FGR and the others they were contending with was the control they had over matches. While the Gloucestershire outfit have forwards more than capable of playing in the EFL, their approach in the final third felt more about individualism than a team with clear patterns and approach play in the final third. They were sound defensively for the most part and progressed into the final third well while also making good use of set-pieces, but that lack of control meant they failed to consistently create quality chances and left themselves vulnerable.
If there is a statistic that shows the frustration of their final third play, it is perhaps that across the team’s final 31 matches, strikers Joe Quigley, Harry Cardwell and Christian Doidge managed just seven goals, and just two of those came when starting matches.
And yet, while there is undoubtedly frustration that a club with one of the biggest budgets in the league couldn’t keep pace with the top two, I don’t think this was a bad season. It’s easy to forget that the club suffered back-to-back relegations, with various managers and sporting directors passing through along the way. To catapult themselves into a push for promotion immediately suggests that they got plenty right, while also needing to acknowledge there is still a lot of work to do.
The Stats
Forest Green Rovers didn’t lose too many games – they lost one fewer than second place York City. They also rank second for fewest goals conceded (42), fewest goals conceded at home (17), games in which they conceded 1 or 0 (37) and games conceding 3 or more (3) – Forest Green were good defensively. And they rank third in areas such as best home record (15-7-1), most time leading (33.2%), least time trailing (17.3%) and record when conceding first (1 PPG earned).
The big kickers were sitting third for most draws (17), losing the third most points in the division after the 75th minute (12) and having the biggest home v away difference, collecting 0.91 points per game more at the New Lawn than away from it – work to do on the road.
Stylistically, there was good and bad. Forest Green completed the third fewest successful dribbles per game (11.6) but were also the third most fouled team. Their goals difference compared to their expected goal difference was the biggest in the division, overperforming at both ends. It helps that they conceded the second lowest quality of chance per shot conceded.
Finally, no side used fewer players than FGR’s 26. They were the only club to have more than one player start all 46 league matches.
What Happens Next?
Forest Green Rovers have the budget. They have a manager that has been there and done it. They have a squad containing leaders and a lot of excellent National League players of a good age. There is no reason why they shouldn’t be right towards the top end of the division.
My intrigue lies in whether Cotterill can find or coach that extra control, fitness, mentality or whatever else to turn those draws into victories, to keep the ball better, to create better chances and take them. They’re not far off but that doesn’t mean they don’t need to improve.
As of right now, my prediction is play-offs.
Gateshead
Position: 8th
Record: P 46; W 19 D 10 L 17; F 76 A 68 GD +8; Pts 67
Most Starts: Luke Hannant (44)
Top Goalscorer: Luke Hannant (15)
Most Assists: Luke Hannant (10)
Clean Sheets: 11
Discipline: Luke Hannant & Regan Booty (10Y 0R)
Pre-season Prediction: 11th
They’ve roped me back in. I had big concerns around Gateshead to the point I considered them for my bottom four. I have no doubts over the quality of the starting XI or the quality of football they will play, but it’s a system that requires everybody to be on song and their depth looked to be entirely young lads stepping into the game, which would have led to some short-termism in stopgap signings and similarities to their first season back under Williamson when they required a late fight back. And then in the space of a week, they let a number of young players depart on loans and signed Jacob Butterfield and Mark Beck. They are serious. They will be quality operators. They might just fall short in another push for the play-offs.
Mid-season Prediction
I wrote Gateshead off in pre-season so I’m loathe to do it again. But also, I think they’re finishing outside of the top three. I love what they are about but feel they’re a little behind Oldham Athletic, York City, Barnet and Forest Green Rovers in terms of budget, knowhow and defensive strength. I dislike that predicting Gateshead to finish 4th or 5th sounds negative because it really isn’t. Their budget is small compared to most, they’ve lost their first-team coaching staff (which included their long-serving centre-back) while their captain and arguably best player is missing the campaign with a broken leg suffered on opening day. As a neutral, it’s easy to get behind the Northeast outfit and would love it if they prove me wrong.
The Reality
It was 23rd December when I wrote the mid-season review and Gateshead were 4th, eight points clear of 6th and nine clear of 8th. They had scored just two fewer than Barnet and York City. It felt inconceivable at the time that the top five wouldn't finish up as the top five, or at least top six given Rochdale's games in hand.
From the date I released that piece, Gateshead were the fifth worst team in the league, losing 12 of their final 23 matches and conceding 40 goals. They collected just seven points from their final 12, including a final day goalless draw with Southend United in a shoot-out for the final play-off spot. The performance was symptomatic of their end of season run, having plenty of the ball but lacking confidence and looking vulnerable.
Their issues lay in the constant player churn. Greg Olley breaking his leg was unfortunate, as was Jacob Butterfield doing his ACL while Kenton Richardson and Joe Grayson managed just 25 starts between them. Rob Elliot, Louis Storey and Chris Bell jumped at the chance to join Crawley Town. Ben Radcliffe and Josh Williams didn’t last long on loan, both departing in January while Callum Whelan and Owen Oseni were sold and Regan Booty missed a couple of matches while his future was looked at.
On 8th February, Gateshead played their first match after the transfer window. Only Luke Hannant, Robbie Tinkler and Regan Booty remained from the starting XI that played on opening day. While the club would back Carl Magnay with new some new additions, they were now playing catch-up.
Meanwhile, there were off-field issues to factor in, many of which Greg Olley made clear during this interview (https://x.com/GatesheadFC/status/1919486939402518666?t=9Q7f169PcxWj2eP78mOY7w&s=19). I still think it's quite something that the club posted this on their own channel, probably knowing Olley was close to departing.
Being a club in Gateshead's position financially, it was never going to be easy to retain top talent and keep punching above their weight but the way things have unfolded in the space of one season, from missing out on the play-offs due to being non-compliant with EFL rules and regulations to winning the FA Trophy to thriving in the league only to somehow miss out on the play-offs understandably leaves a bad taste in the mouth of fans and players.
The Stats
Gateshead were a lot of fun in general. Their matches saw the second most goals total (3.13) and also sat second for goals total away from home (3.3). It helped that they were largely excellent going forward, scoring the third most goals (76), joint most away from home (39) and they scored the second most first half goals (42). It makes sense with Gateshead sitting third for possession (55.8%), joint second for shots per game (12.8), first for crosses, first for penalties won (12) and second for PPDA against.
Gateshead were generally fine in the first half of matches and goals conceded in the final 15 minutes of matches only cost them three points. But the Northeast outfit ranked 13th for their second half results and collected only four points from the 18 matches in which they conceded first, the third lowest points per game in the division.
Why? For starters, Gateshead used 45 players, more than any other National League side, and on average they had the third youngest team (25.6). They committed the third fewest fouls, which may suggest a soft spot and coincides with their PPDA increasing. But most damning is that they conceded the highest quality of shot conceded by (0.014xG per shot), which will have played a role in them conceding at least 20 more than any of the top seven.
What Happens Next?
There are a lot of lessons to be learned. At the time of writing, they have a transfer ban enforced by FIFA, have lost manager Carl Magnay to National League North South Shields, have allowed captain Greg Olley to leave the club, Regan Booty has shared his unhappiness with his own situation and fans are raising concern with chairman Bernard McWilliams trying to fan the flames with a series of statements. It’s an awkward situation the club finds themselves in.
I don’t think it’s unfair to suggest that the club’s aim first and foremost given the scale of change in recent times is to avoid being dragged into trouble. There are still good people at the football club and some good players that could help plan towards a more positive goal but they have to make a decision on whether they are to continue on with the same philosophy and culture that helped them rise, or start over with new ideology and freshen things up.
Since writing the above, ex-Blyth Spartans and Darlington boss Alun Armstrong has been appointed. He has already discussed bringing an identity back to the team and it will be interesting to see whether he manages to do that.
Hartlepool United
Position: 11th
Record: P 46; W 14 D 18 L 14; F 59 A 62 GD –4; Pts 60
Most Starts: Nathan Sheron (44)
Top Goalscorer: Emmanuel Dieseruvwe (16)
Most Assists: Luke Charman (5)
Clean Sheets: 12
Discipline: Jack Hunter (8Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 5th
Despite continued concerns around the club’s ownership, I see Hartlepool United having a positive campaign. The reasons are threefold. One, Darren Sarll enters clubs and tends to have a fast start, meaning we should see a Hartlepool United side that are up for the fight early doors, catch teams off guard and retain a high league position. Two, the squad suits what Sarll will want to see which is being dominant through the centre of the pitch physically supported by plenty of energy and quality delivery. Three, it’s a fairly reliable group with a number of players proving they can play regular football. Hartlepool won’t be a sexy team to watch, but they will be functional, reliable, hard to play against and will find a way to score goals. The question is whether they can find another gear to finish strongly, assuming my prediction of a fast start is correct.
Mid-season Prediction
A part of me wants to get behind them. They have an experienced spine, are already proving stronger in both boxes and there is more trust in the playing staff. The other part of me assumes that Lawrence and Limbrick are going to face new challenges as the season goes on with recruitment and injuries / knocks. They’re in the conversation for the top seven. I’ll predict them just missing out.
The Reality
Eurgh.
So, Darren Sarll had had three jobs prior to taking on Hartlepool United and started pretty punchy in each one. He inherited a squad with experience, physicality and a combative nature, which I figured may suit his preference for direct football. In some ways, I wasn’t wrong – Hartlepool worked hard, were hard to beat, made games tight and lost just one of their first eight. But they couldn’t buy a goal, partly because they were creating poor chances on average, and fans were quickly frustrated by it. Rather than form turning in their favour, it got worse and by mid-October, after being knocked out of the FA Cup by Brackley Town, he was gone.
The return of Lennie Lawrence to the dugout followed and simplification was the order of the day. A strong base, speed out wide, Dieseruvwe firmly installed as the main man and Hartlepool improved. He oversaw just three defeats in his 16 matches in charge, away at Barnet, York City and Gateshead, but an inability to turn draws into victories scuppered any further climb. Still, the team had settled down, consistent shape, clear game plan and there was a little more positivity on the field.
The 77-year-old ended his interim spell by handing the reins to assistant manager Anthony Limbrick, who had previous at this level with Woking. His time in charge wasn’t entirely fruitful, the Pools collecting 21 points from 17 matches, but there were positives to take as Limbrick took the handbrake off with a bold system designed to get wing-backs high up the pitch and two strikers on the field.
There were some successes. Reyes Cleary turned into one of the most dangerous wide men at the level, Dieseruvwe scored five in his last eight and the team in general went from one win in 11 to one loss in eight. Furthermore, their underlying numbers were strong with the team creating plenty and simply falling short in both boxes.
It’s a weird season to look back on. The continued off-field noise means positivity is few and far between for Hartlepool fans who want a reason to really get behind the club again. On the field, the team were never in danger of going down but equally fell short every time it looked like they may close the gap on those pushing for a shot at promotion.
The Stats
Reasons to be positive, reasons to be frustrated.
Let’s start with the latter. Hartlepool drew the second most games in the National League and when you consider they were level in matches for more time than anybody else (55.5% of minutes) but joint third for most points lost after 75 minutes (12), you get a picture of where their problems lay. Also, Hartlepool collected just nine points against bottom four teams, the joint third fewest in the league.
Another frustrating statistic is that the Pools were the second biggest underachievers against their xGD, being close to 20 goals short. But to frame it positively, it means that they were a top six side for xGD, conceded the lowest quality of shot conceded, ranked fifth for box entries and second for box entries per touch. Hartlepool did a lot of stuff well and it was only a lack of quality in good positions that hurt them.
Elsewhere, for additional nuance, it’s little surprise that a team put together by Darren Sarll ranked top for fouls conceded (12.4) while Hartlepool had the second oldest team based on minutes played (28.8).
What Happens Next?
On the day I wrote the above sections on Hartlepool United, Anthony Limbrick was removed from his post and Simon Grayson was employed in his place.
What level is Grayson at as a manager these days? It remains to be seen. He’s not managed a full season in England since leaving Preston North End in 2017 and has since managed Sunderland, Bradford City, Fleetwood Town, Bengaluru (India) and Lalitpur City (Nepal).
Meanwhile, off field issues remain. It was announced in March that Raj Singh would step down and stop funding the club after the last game of the season, but then Singh stated that nobody had the funds to run the club so he would step back in if supporters wanted him to, leading to fans choosing to keep him at the club, a decisions disputed by said fans who are a little dubious over the situation. Meanwhile, Jeff Stelling removed himself from the club speaking against the owner and the lack of communication to people paying to be involved.
The retained list suggests an awful lot of work needs to be done to convince players to stick around with the squad now looking bare. Will Grayson get a budget that enables him to push the club forward? How quickly can he get on top of the job, recruitment et al? It’s hard not to be concerned by where things go next, yet I’m pretty confident that they won’t go down.
Maidenhead United
Position: 22nd
Record: P 46; W 14 D 10 L 22; F 57 A 75 GD –18; Pts 52
Most Starts: Casey Pettit (46)
Top Goalscorer: Shawn McCoulsky (16)
Most Assists: Nathan Ferguson (9)
Clean Sheets: 9
Discipline: Tristian Abrahams (9Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 20th
I feel like I’m repeating myself every year with Maidenhead United. But it doesn’t matter whether they don’t have a first-choice striker at the moment, or may still lose Smith, or that their new full-backs are novices at the level. Devonshire and his team will have their finger on the pulse, they’ll add what they need to add, they’ll go on bad runs and good runs and bloody the noses of those in the top half at York Road and find a way to survive. They might finish higher than 20th but so long as they stay in the National League, I’m not sure they will be too bothered.
Mid-season Prediction
In my head, there are three sides I feel are heading down. I’m struggling with the fourth. I confess to being prepared to put my head on the chopping block and consider Maidenhead United as that fourth team. But, they’ve faced such a tough opening to the campaign and walk away from it in touching distance of 20th. I’m not ready to call it yet. The club’s experiences could prove pivotal.
The Reality
After sharing my season preview, I received a message from Lee Devonshire saying “Hi pal. Did you forget Tristan Abrahams plays for us at Maidenhead”.
Ffs.
The 2024/25 season would be the one where Maidenhead United finally fell through the trap door back into regional football after eight seasons in non-league's top tier. But unlike most relegations, this isn’t the story of a club who deserved to go down after a myriad of poor decisions but simply one who had punched above its weight season after season and finally fallen short. And even then, they can feel hard done by – the Magpies finished 22nd with 52 points, enough to keep them up in eight of the last ten 46-game seasons with no side in 22nd attaining more than 50. The pitfalls of such a competitive division.
When you’re a club of Maidenhead’s stature, it’s difficult to play catch up. They have a tendency to start slowly but are usually settled, allowing them to pick up the pace and respond positively. Losing four of their back seven within a couple of weeks of the season starting was unhelpful and extended the slow start. Ten matches, seven losses.
Still, this was Maidenhead United. They will find stability, they’ll hit a run or two and do enough to avoid any danger. And when they went five unbeaten in Autumn, it felt like we may be hitting the type of form they have a tendency to hit. They followed that up with three wins in 13. And then after two wins and a draw in February, they picked up five points from the next nine. By the end of the last run, they were four points adrift of safety with six to play, with the others above them having a game in hand.
They had a chance, but it was a small one. They had already signed a couple of forwards and it enabled them to revert away from the three-at-the-back system used in lieu of natural, dependable width. The fixture list looked kind on paper. They beat Tamworth. They beat FC Halifax Town. They earned points against Woking and Wealdstone. They beat already relegated Ebbsfleet United. And so to the final day and a home game against Boston United. They needed a win and for Dagenham and Redbridge and Wealdstone to fall short. They did their job convincingly, but it wasn’t enough.
As above, there are questions that can be asked, like any club that goes down. What would have happened if Kevin Lokko stayed fit? What if they could have got their full-backs up to speed earlier? If experienced pros such as Remy Clerima and Kane Ferdinand could have played a bigger part? If Jayden Mitchell-Lawson didn’t do his ACL in October. If Josh Johnson could have played more football after joining on loan. But ultimately, this was a case of a club generally doing good things, taking gambles, coming close but not quite having enough. It happens.
The Stats
Maidenhead United’s season could almost be boiled down to two statistics. Maidenhead United were one of two sides not to lose when scoring first, enjoying a 13-6-0 record in such matches. Maidenhead United had the second worst record when conceding first, collecting five points from the 25 matches in which they conceded the first goal.
Elsewhere, the Magpies couldn’t make their presence at York Road felt, having the second joint poorest home record (7-7-9) while on the road, only AFC Fylde and Ebbsfleet United lost more matches (13). They also won just two points after the 75th minute in matches, the joint fewest in the division. It’s perhaps not too surprising given the Berkshire outfit averaged the second lowest possession (40.7%), took the joint second fewest shots per game (8.4), had the third fewest box entries and worst PPDA against. Maidenhead were a side that didn’t look after the ball and didn’t make the best of use of it when they had it.
And yet, as is tradition, Maidenhead did so much of their best work against the best in the division. The 17 points they collected vs top seven sides was the joint third highest in the league behind the top two, making up 32.6% of their points.
What Happens Next?
Maidenhead United play in the National League South. As noted above, it’s going to be a very competitive division with several full-time outfits so while the natural inclination is to suggest the Magpies will fancy an immediate return, it’s not going to be easy.
They drop with the consistency of their management team but have seen a number of players depart including long-serving captain Alan Massey, top scorers Shawn McCoulsky, Tristan Abrahams and Reece Smith as well as Craig Ross and Kevin Lokko while Casey Pettit will have suitors. But Devonshire is sticking around, the club are well run and I’m somebody who sees stability as important.
I’m not convinced they find themselves in the automatic promotion race. Top seven? They’ll be in the picture.
Oldham Athletic
Position: 5th
Record: P 46; W 19 D 16 L 11; F 64 A 48 GD +16; Pts 73
Most Starts: Charlie Raglan (40)
Top Goalscorer: Mike Fondop-Talum (17)
Most Assists: Mike Fondop-Talum & Tom Pett (5)
Clean Sheets: 16
Discipline: Josh Kay (5Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 4th
The general consensus will be that Oldham Athletic are aiming for promotion and understandably so – it's Oldham Athletic in the National League. They may achieve it this season, but I think they have a number of hurdles to overcome still as they look to realise that ambition. Micky Mellon and Darren Royle certainly seem aware of Oldham’s recent history, not winning promotion for over three decades while their back-to-back top half finishes were their first since 2008-09. They are learning lessons as an ownership, a fanbase, a football club, a management team and that will continue this term as they look to deal with expectation, improve home form, put together winning runs, respond to setbacks and more. I’m confident they finish in the top seven. League winners? Maybe not yet.
Mid-season Prediction
The Latics’ recent winning run has firmly established them as part of the title chasing pack and there a number of reasons to get behind them. They have already showcased a steeliness to earn results against three of their title contenders and the numbers look fine. The challenge to finish in the top three is definitely there. Can they win the league? I think they’ll fall short.
The Reality
Oldham started the season with two wins, followed by five 1-1 draws either side of defeat to Aldershot Town. They then backed that up with ten wins, two draws and one loss in 13 matches. You can see why I was so high on them leading into my mid-season review piece on 23rd December.
Things got a little chaotic from there. Over the next month or so they would lose goalkeeper Mat Hudson, Tom Conlon, and Manny Monthe to injury as well as Sam Clucas and Josh Stones to transfers and things got a little messy. Having averaged around 1.45 changes to the starting XI per game in the first 21 matches, they would average 2.68 over the rest of the campaign.
There are two ways to look at things. On the one hand, they were able to sign the sort of players many in the division wouldn’t be able to get their hands on, let alone the number of players they added leaving them with a big squad. On the other, the constant chopping and changing of personnel as they attempted to cover for injury, suspension and departures led Mellon to having a very unsettled side over the rest of the league campaign. From 22nd December, Oldham played 25 matches and were the 16th best team in the league on a points-per-game basis. But they had done most of the hard work. And thanks in part to many of the sides in the race for the play-offs faltering, they were able to achieve play-off status.
There’s little denying that Oldham were the club to benefit most from the extended break before the play-offs took place. Manny Monthe returned to fitness. Joe Garner and Mike Fondop-Talum had time to set themselves. Corry Evans returned. Reagan Ogle had a little more time to get fit. By the time the play-offs started, the Latics were virtually at full strength. They hammered an undercooked, youthful FC Halifax Town and did the same to York City having initially punished an error playing out. What followed was a tremendous final in front of a huge crowd at Wembley despite all the issues leading into it. And having looked like they may fall short, two goals in quick succession in injury time got the job done and Oldham Athletic are once again an EFL club.
This wasn’t the easiest season to follow Oldham. Some similar issues of recent campaigns arose and they made far too many changes to the squad having initially settled down. But all that matters is that they got over the line, won promotion and can begin to look up once more. Hopefully they won’t have to wait over 30 years for their next promotion.
The Stats
Despite the turnover they faced during the campaign, the strength of character and depth at Oldham was rarely in question. Oldham Athletic were the only side not to drop points after the 75th minute in matches and also won the joint most points during the same period (13). They also had the second best second half record.
Consistently doing good things helped: Oldham delivered the second most crossed and second most accurate crosses into the area while conceding the third lowest quality of chance conceded per shot. It’s little wonder they conceded 3 or more goals on just four occasions (joint second fewest). They also had the third best PPDA.
Experience was a key part of all that, the Latics having the joint third oldest team in the division based on minutes played (28.7). And being able to perform in front of the third biggest attendance in the league was important too.
What Happens Next?
Oldham Athletic play in the Football League once again and like so many before them, they will be looking up rather than down.
Manager Micky Mellon is now a six-time promotion winner and has achieved promotion out of League Two twice before. He steps up with a squad that has plenty of Football League quality and knowhow and the club has the financial power to attack the division should they choose to do so.
A top half finish is my initial prediction. Top seven? It depends on whether Mellon is able to build a side that can play consistently to avoid coming across the same issues they endured this term.
Rochdale
Position: 4th
Record: P 46; W 21 D 11 L 14; F 69 A 44 GD +25; Pts 74
Most Starts: Sam Beckwith (43)
Top Goalscorer: Devante Rodney (17)
Most Assists: Tobi Adebayo-Rowling (9)
Clean Sheets: 18
Discipline: Sam Beckwith (9Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 14th
I think another season of consolidation is likely for Rochdale. The new ownership aren’t getting carried away and are likely to focus their work on improving facilities, relationships and standards around the club as they bid to adhere to their goals. Recruitment for the first-team has followed a similar process to last year, McNulty taking on a small squad of players, many of whom are moving towards their prime years and are looking to develop their game while playing a patient, possession-based brand of football. There has been big change in the defensive area of the pitch and will be a lot of moving parts around the club generally. A mid-table finish as they set themselves up for a more consistent push in 2025-26 is where I see things heading.
Mid-season Prediction
I believe Rochdale are on the right path as far as the long-term is concerned and I expect them to continue learning as the season progresses. They will finish in the top half. Top seven? I’m not sure. They have now lost a third of their league matches this season, including six of their last 13 after such a positive start. I feel they may sink into the pack and it’s going to be about whether they can turn their style into one that creates chances more regularly. Keeping Kairo Mitchell and Devante Rodney fit could be the difference.
The Reality
I thought I had done Rochdale a minor disservice by suggesting they may drop down the league table, even while believing they would do good things and continue to grow after years of off field issues. They blew my expectations out of the water.
They had an interesting summer with some creative additions and started excellently, collecting 17 points from their opening eight matches, conceding just three goals. Then after back-to-back defeats, they added another seven points to leave themselves in 5th. A good start.
What followed was a curious set of results: LWLWLWLWWLWL. Four of those losses came against eventually top seven opposition while the wins remained important to their goals, but the run itself showed there was a chink in the armour and why I wasn’t so confident heading into the second half of the campaign. Four draws and a loss followed with Rochdale dropping to 10th – albeit with games in hands – and it felt like this could be a brutal end to the season.
The response was good. Across their final 16 matches they picked up 28 points, including four wins from five to secure their play-off spot with a game to spare. While there weren’t too many points in it, to finish 4th and get that visual of being the best side outside of the runaway top three looked good.
The play-offs didn’t go to plan. They hosted Southend United and were on the wrong end of a barmy affair that finished 4-3 after extra-time having taken a two-goal lead. Rochdale had struggled to earn results against the sides around them all season and this was further evidence of the work in progress they remain.
Still, this was a positive campaign. While Rochdale aren’t paupers, they are also not as rich as some of the other clubs in the division and have had to work smart to give themselves a shot at promotion. They have a distinct, fairly unique style, plenty of good characters, an emotionally intelligent manager and some excellent players for the level. They got plenty right during the 2024-25 season and leave themselves with something to build upon.
The Stats
Rochdale were excellent defensively. They ranked fourth for goals conceded (44), joint third for fewest away goals conceded (23), third for clean sheets (18) and second for both games in which they conceded 1 or 0 (37) and for games in which they conceded 3 or more (4). Meanwhile, they weren’t so bad going forward, ranking third for games in which they scored 3 or more goals (12) and for goals scored in the second half (41). Little wonder they went 13 wins out of 13 when scoring first at home (only team with a perfect record.
What makes Rochdale unique is the style they used to manage all of that. They played a slow possession style and stood off in possession, making their games non-combative. They ranked fourth for PPDA against but bottom for PPDA for which led to them having the best discipline in the division (54 yellow cards and 1 red card), committing the fewest fouls per game (7.9) while also seeing their opposition receive the fewest cards (73 yellow cards, 1 red card) and being the least fouled team. The style worked with the ball – they ranked third for most successful dribbles and second for box entries.
The sour note in terms of their results was their record against the top and bottom sides in the division. They took the second fewest points of any side in the division against the top seven (7) while the percentage of points taken off the bottom four sides was the joint third lowest in the league.
What Happens Next?
It’s going to be an interesting season for Rochdale. They finished fourth and that isn’t going to be easy to match in what promises to be another very competitive National League campaign, and it means that even if they improve from the standpoint of preparing themselves for success longer term (the club had a three-year plan) but drop a couple of places in the league, or even miss out on the play-offs for various reasons – say an injury crisis – it's potentially not going to reflect all that well tangibly.
I like Jim McNulty and I think everything he does or says is for the benefit of his players and looking after them. He’s clearly emotionally intelligent and that goes a long way. And yet, I do wonder whether he may need to be a little more constructive, brave and / or ruthless when the time calls for it, avoiding some of the reasons he has a tendency to find when things haven’t gone their way. This isn’t saying he needs to change who he is – there is clearly plenty of good in what he’s doing and how he manages – but just that slight change to demand a little more from people and drive that consistency.
Elsewhere, I wonder if next steps for Rochdale to improve include being more aggressive without the ball – as above, their PPDA was the highest in the division – while McNulty made three or more changes on 26 occasions, which feels a lot. The signings of Dan Moss and Mani Dieseruvwe appear to be a step in the right direction as far as ambition goes and I’m looking forward to seeing how they go.
Solihull Moors
Position: 14th
Record: P 46; W 16 D 10 L 20; F 61 A 67 GD –6; Pts 58
Most Starts: Alex Whitmore (43)
Top Goalscorer: Conor Wilkinson (13)
Most Assists: Jamey Osborne (10)
Clean Sheets: 6
Discipline: Conor Wilkinson (12Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 9th
On the one hand, they have a pretty good spine in Walker, Clarke, Whitmore, Osborne and Campbell and there is better depth to the group on paper. On the other, I need more evidence around the reliability of the group as a whole, particularly in deep and attacking midfield, while Whing and Ward will face more expectation than last season having arrived at a point where there was nothing to lose. I think last season brought people together more and while I’m not sure they improve on last season’s remarkable finish in both league and cup, I think they are beginning to build for something better and should challenge.
Mid-season Prediction
Like a lot of sides in the race for a play-off spot, I can’t rule Solihull Moors out. Will they tighten up? Will they stop scoring so many? Will they just balance out? It’s all a little chaotic at the moment and I can’t answer any of those questions definitively. I remain concerned by the defensive area of the pitch, so I’m going to follow my gut and my pre-season prediction and say they’ll finish outside of the top seven.
The Reality
It’s hard to know where to begin with a season that promised plenty, hit some avoidable problems, got thrown right up in the air after New Year and ended miserably.
I wasn’t necessarily wrong with my pre-season prediction for Solihull Moors – there was quality but a lack of reliability with only Alex Whitmore, Jamey Osborne, Joe Newton and James Clarke starting more than 30 games. The fact that two of those would find themselves seemingly unfancied by the incoming Matt Taylor did little to help.
But Andy Whing was getting a tune out of people. They were short early doors, leading to a shift in formation that prioritised defensive solidity over quality but as bodies returned or were signed – Michael Adu-Poku had a big impact – they improved and jumped from 14th to 6th after eight wins from 13.
And so to my mid-season prediction of believing they may fall short, which proved correct. Only, I had no idea that Whing was going to head up to Barrow, Darryl Eales and Stephen Ward were going to outline that the outgoing boss had failed to match the club’s ambition of a top three league finish and put summer recruitment firmly at his door before employing Matt Taylor, much to the delight of Wealdstone supporters who felt they were going to be relegated under his management. A wild turn of events.
Things got bad. Taylor would lose eight of his first nine matches in charge and his only win in the first 15 came against Ebbsfleet United, the winner scored after the runaway winners of the wooden spoon had a man sent off. Taylor would do that rather frustrating thing of saying he takes responsibility before taking minimal accountability, often citing the fitness of the players he inherited from a poor availability point of view or at times questioning the desire and character of them.
Three wins on the spin coinciding with the return of Laurie Walker helped to ensure Moors avoided trouble and they played their part on the final day by somehow managing to deny Dagenham and Redbridge a winner. However, very little about their end of season form was convincing and a 14th place finish, while having been the second worst side in the league in 2025, was far below their expectations.
The Stats
Solihull Moors started matches badly and tended to improve. They spent the third least time leading and second most time trailing, had the fourth worst first half record in the division, the worst record in the first 15 minutes of matches (4 scored, 12 conceded), conceded first 32 times, the most in the division, and kept the joint fewest clean sheets (6). And yet, the Moors had the ninth best second half record, won the joint most points after the 75th minute (13) and had the best points-per-game record when they did score first, winning 12 and drawing two of 14, including a perfect record in all seven matches they scored first on the road.
Home form was an issue with them losing ten matches (most outside of the bottom two) and only Ebbsfleet United conceded more goals at home than Moors’ 40. Perhaps it’s a good job their attendance is the third smallest in the league.
Stylistically there wasn’t too much to note. They were the third most fouled team but didn’t utilise that to good effect in play, sitting 20th for box entries and 23rd for box entries per touch of the ball.
What Happens Next?
The 2025-26 campaign is a fascinating one for Solihull Moors.
This feels like Matt Taylor's final shot in management having struggled to get over hurdles at Shrewsbury Town, Walsall and Wealdstone and it’s fair to say he’s not popular with his new supporters.
Having referenced so many issues about the players he has inherited at Solihull Moors, he now has a full pre-season to work with a good friend in Stephen Ward to rectify those problems and while the budget isn’t at York City or Forest Green Rovers levels, it’s unquestionably healthy for the level. There are minimal excuses if this doesn't work out.
It means that we are about to see Matt Taylor the manager prove himself capable or his bosses are going to have to make an uncomfortable decision. And if that decision is made, how does it reflect on Ward? A lot of unanswered questions.
Southend United
Position: 7th
Record: P 46; W 17 D 17 L 12; F 59 A 48 GD +11; Pts 68
Most Starts: Harry Taylor (45)
Top Goalscorer: Gus Scott-Morriss (17)
Most Assists: Charley Kendall & Leon Chambers-Parillon (5)
Clean Sheets: 18
Discipline: Cavaghn Miley (8Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 3rd
No more distractions. No more off-field issues. Just a chance to look forward. They have a fantastic manager, a quality coaching staff, plenty of people behind the scenes that care, a quality group that have proven their togetherness over time and the ability to add more quality to that group with John Still helping lead that. This squad will be one of, if not the, best defensive sides in the division and amongst the best going forward – they will hope to improve on a record of scoring 15 goals less than expected last term. I could place Southend anywhere in the top three and feel comfortable with it.
Mid-season Prediction
If Southend United want to reach 75 points, they will need to accrue 2.09 points per game between now and the end of the season. That’s what the top three are currently hitting. For 70, it’s 1.89, which would be a top five performance. The chances of the Blues reaching the top seven at this stage are minimal. A top half finish is likely the focus now as the management team work towards building a team that can finally start the new season prepared and ready to go from the off.
The Reality
There was good and bad in the above predictions.
For the first time in a long time, Kevin Maher and his staff were able to introduce change but they were quickly dealt a number of blows. Ollie Kensdale left the club following an off-field incident, Harry Cardwell was sold to Forest Green Rovers after five matches while Cavaghan Miley was injured on matchday five and would wind up missing a fair portion of the season, all while a number of new additions, several made after the season had begun. That’s big change to the spine of the team and, for the first time in a long time, change in the dressing room too.
And so on 21st December, they found themselves in 16th position having won just six of their opening 23 matches, all while continuing to post strong, if not quite excellent, underlying numbers. And that last bit is why, despite being narrowly closer to the bottom four than the top seven, I was more concerned by whether they would reach the play-offs as opposed to fall closer to the trapdoor.
You can track the team’s progress over various points. For starters, the last time Southend lost back-to-back matches was in November and the first time they won back-to-back matches was during the Christmas period. And the thing about predicting them to finish 3rd? From 6th October onwards, so 33 matches, they were the fourth best team in the division, just two points shy of Forest Green Rovers.
What changed? My honest belief is that after the early inconveniences, the management team and players got themselves re-organised, re-established their principles and new leaders began to emerge. It helped establish a togetherness that improved their defensive record and the quality of their attack – Southend’s xG numbers across the season were the third best in the National League behind the top two come the end of the season.
Still, while they were managing to avoid defeat – five losses in their final 28 – they were still drawing too many games and couldn’t quite turn back-to-back wins into a run and they fell short of the 1.89 points-per-game needed for 70 points. Fortunately for them, only six teams managed to reach that figure allowing Southend United to earn a final draw away at Gateshead on final day to slip into 7th on 68 points, the lowest points total for that position since the 2012-13 season (excluding COVID interrupted years).
Their play-off campaign was every bit as dramatic as you would expect for a club that have been on Southend’s journey over recent years. Three matches. Over 360 minutes of action. Sixteen goals. A comeback from 3-1 down away from home. A penalty shoot-out victory. A devastating loss in extra-time at Wembley after conceding twice in two minutes. Football is fun. Football is brutal.
Southend United have gone through a lot of heartache in recent years and while losing out on promotion in the manner they did will be hard to stomach and live long in the memory for all the wrong reasons, I’ve no doubt those associated with the club are proud of the way they have bounced back. They deserved that day out at Wembley and they now have something tangible to build upon.
The Stats
As noted above, Southend United were one of the better performing sides in the division. They ranked fourth for xG and third for xGD. No side produced more crosses or accurate crosses per game and were fourth for box entries, suggesting they played a style that allowed to get the ball into dangerous areas in the final third consistently and gain opportunities. Meanwhile defensively, they ranked third for xGA and kept the joint third most clean sheets (18).
So why did they finish 7th? For starters, too many draws (17, joint third most). They did not win any of the 17 matches in which they conceded first (six draws, 11 defeats, 12 scored) and won the third fewest points after the 75th minute of matches (4). And while they were strong in the final third in terms of gaining opportunities, they perhaps didn’t commit the opposition enough, ranking second bottom for fouls won and joint bottom for penalties won (1). An argument for improvement on game management and fitness?
Southend weren’t the most exciting team to watch, ranking second bottom for goals per game total (2.33), joint third bottom for goals per game total away from home (2.17) and second bottom for games in which both teams scored (43%). However, their attendance was the biggest in the National League on average (7.34k) and only Barnet and York City took more points off the rest of sides that finished in the top seven (17). They were well disciplined or too nice depending on your view of their discipline being the third best in the division.
What Happens Next?
Southend United build towards the next step. The Shrimpers have consistently been one of the better performing sides in the National League since Maher, Currie and Bentley arrived and have generally fallen just shy of their aims for various reasons. However, they will start the new season as one of the most stable groups in the division.
Still, there is work to do. For starters, those statistics around their record when behind or producing towards the end of games needs to improve. And their season ending on 1st June means they are a month behind the rest of the division as far as recruitment is concerned, unhelpful when the spine of the team does need work following a season of mixing and matching depending on availability.
I think Southend plant themselves firmly in contention for the top seven again. Can they push for the top three? I think I need to see who they recruit first.
Sutton United
Position: 12th
Record: P 46; W 15 D 15 L 16; F 59 A 64 GD –5; Pts 60
Most Starts: Will Davies (40)
Top Goalscorer: Will Davies (18)
Most Assists: Ashley Nadesan (7)
Clean Sheets: 12
Discipline: Tyler French (10Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 12th
I’ll be honest, I have absolutely no idea with Sutton United. On the one hand, I think Steve Morison is very clear in what he wants and will have made moves this summer to fit his demands. I think he’s got a young group that will play a tidy style of football and have the kind of wildcards in the final third that should make them enjoyable to watch, as well as a threat to opponents. Yet I’m also concerned by the sheer scale of change this summer, not to mention only signing one player over the age of 25. I think they will be more than fine but I feel like inconsistency is likely.
Mid-season Prediction
I don’t foresee a huge amount of change to their spot in the table. The scale of change has been the key aspect to their inconsistency but this is only the start of their journey. I’m expecting more challenges to creep up, another change or two in a bid to find the right balance and a team that is left in a good spot to build on in the summer where they can look to step up a level or two.
The Reality
That Sutton United’s season was an inconsistent one in which they showed plenty of good but were regularly undone by the naivety of a young group finding its feet together. The scale of change to the squad was showcased on opening day when they named 15 new signings in the matchday 18, nine of whom started. Of that 18, 14 were aged 25 or under.
The inconsistency of their campaign is easy enough to read. They started positively, going five unbeaten before losing three in a row. They took ten points from the next four then lost three in a row. A win. A loss. Three wins in a row. Six without a win but only two defeats. Back-to-back victories. Five without a win. Their record across the final ten games of the season read WDLDWLDLWD. No back-to-back results. From December 14th onwards, Sutton sat exclusively between 10th and 14th in the table, never caring for the relegation scrap unfolding below them but never able to truly trouble those pushing for promotion.
From the start of the summer, it felt like the club were taking an opportunity to restructure the club’s identity, modernising their approach to the football side of things by playing a more expansive brand of football and developing young talent to make them a more appealing football club. But it's the kind of approach that takes time and patience to build and to his credit, Steve Morison proved an honest but patient leader of this project. Or at least, he often presented himself that way during his pressers.
He tried things. Sutton changed shape on a couple of occasions depending on the available options and always tried to play in a progressive way. He wasn't afraid to make a big call when he felt it was needed, such as recalling youngster Jack Taylor and giving him plenty of minutes at the end of the season or using his wingers at wing-back.
But this was an inconsistent season that can be outlined by three things: only three players managed to play at least three-quarters of available minutes, at least three changes were made to the starting XI in over half of their league matches and they never named the same centre-backs in more than four games consecutively.
This was an okay season. Nothing more, nothing less. Sutton have never been a club with a huge budget and the turnover meant a promotion challenge was unlikely. A solid, mid-table, consolidatory campaign that allows them to look up rather than down is a positive one in my book.
The Stats
Like their season, the statistics noted on Sutton United’s season don’t provide a clear pattern and structure for the way their season went down. So, I’m simply going to provide the information and allow you to make your own co conclusions.
Sutton United were one of two teams in the National League to accrue more points away from home than at home (0.09 points per game swing). An impressive 63% of their matches saw both teams score. The Amber Army ranked third for most points in the final 15 minutes of matches.
Steve Morison’s side were the second youngest on average based on minutes played (25.2). They were the only team not to see an opponent sent off but they drew the third most yellows cards out of their opposition (107). They earned 70% of their overall points total against bottom half teams, third highest, having taken just 18 points from games against the 11 sides to place higher than them, joint fourth fewest.
What Happens Next?
I guess the expectation will be to improve on their 2024-25 campaign. And yet their early summer recruitment suggests we may get more of the same as they raid the National League South for young players who will hope to prove themselves having made the step up. Plus Nadesan and Jones, of course.
I will admit that that is a lazy view. I haven’t completed further digging into the quality of player signed and I’m conscious that numerous Twitter accounts are quick to praise every signing a non-league club makes, so I’m reticent to get too excited. But I do like that they are moving quickly for quality width, an area they suffered last season.
Another concern for their play-off hopes arises from losing Davies, French, Barbrook, Coley and Topalloj, two of Sutton's most used eight players, while Simper is also highly thought of. It creates the likelihood of more inconsistency with selection as they head into the season.
But despite my initial doubts over their play-off chances, I continue to believe Sutton are doing good things and moving in the right direction, so there is no longer term concern. They are being brave with the approach and hopefully they take another step up forward.
Tamworth
Position: 10th
Record: P 46; W 17 D 13 A 16; F 65 A 72 GD –7; Pts 64
Most Starts: Haydn Hollis (46)
Top Goalscorer: Dan Creaney (19)
Most Assists: Dan Creaney & Tom Tonks (5)
Clean Sheets: 6
Discipline: Jordan Cullinane-Liburd (11Y 2R)
Pre-season Prediction: 24th
It always feels lazy to predict newcomers to go straight back down, especially in bottom place. However, the last two seasons have seen a newly promoted club finish bottom, a third has been relegated, two survived after late runs of form dragged them out of the relegation picture and none have finished in the top half. Tamworth remain a part-time outfit and have stepped up two divisions in a short amount of time. I’m getting shades of Kidderminster Harriers in how I see Tamworth this season. They will be competitive, they will play games on tight margins and look to utilise what they can to win games. But turning tight margins affairs into enough victories will be tough and I can only hope they prove me wrong.
Mid-season Prediction
Tamworth are staying up. Going into the second half of the campaign, they are nine points clear of the drop with a number of games yet to play against the sides below them in the table. The consistency of their approach and on-field leadership and reliability will be important, along with their home form. I don’t see the squad being picked apart by the vultures in January. What a job Peaks and his team have done.
The Reality
I had completely forgotten what I wrote in pre-season and I'm wondering this lot pinned those comments on a wall somewhere as they became the first side since both Salford City and Harrogate Town to complete a full National season and finish in the top half following promotion.
Tamworth took a beat to find their feet, winning one of their first seven, failing to score in four and being hammered 7-0 by eventual champions Barnet. But Andy Peaks and his squad haven’t come this far without being able to learn along the way and they stepped up.
Peaks said early in the campaign that he wanted to utilise the squad that he had put together and he did just that, giving as many as possible the opportunity to step up while working out what worked best. Some fell to the wayside, some took their time, some stepped up early and kept that up. New signings mid-season were rare and often added out of necessity rather than Peaks having a penchant for signing footballers.
They won three in a row in September and then followed up back-to-back losses with back-to-back wins before going 4-5-6 with no back-to-back results whatsoever across the winter months. And in the midst of that, they knocked off resurgent Macclesfield Town, League One promotion contenders Huddersfield Town and local rivals Burton Albion to set up a match at the Lamb against Tottenham Hotspur, taking them to extra-time. The season that just keeps getting better.
With all the distractions out of the way, Tamworth set about securing their National League status, only to find themselves on a run of five wins from six and one loss in 11, giving them feint hopes of a play-off push. They fell short. Three defeats in four put paid to that. But the sheer fact that the Lambs were in the conversation as late as April was a testament to this whirlwind of a season.
“Dreaming is for free” wrote Tom Tonks on 22nd March. Back-to-back promotions, a 10th place finish, an FA Cup run that allowed their story to be told to a mainstream audience and a Birmingham Senior Cup trophy to finish up.
What a story this has been.
The Stats
Tamworth were one of five sides not to be full-time this last season and their attendance was the second smallest in the division on average. They therefore had to maximise what they had - and they did just that.
Experience was important. The Lambs had the third oldest side in the division based on minutes played (28.7). What they lacked in natural quality – bottom for possession (39.4%), second bottom for PPDA and third bottom for successful dribbles – they made up for with a clear structure and style, having the second most shots per game (12.8), third highest xG (70.34), most box entries per touch of the ball and they also drew more cards from their opposition than any other side (118 yellows, 8 reds). Talk about effective.
They had to be in many ways. Had they not scored and created the chances they had, they would have likely struggled – no side kept fewer clean sheets than Andy Peaks' side with 65% of matches finishing with both sides scoring, second highest. They ranked third for goals per game total (2.98) as well. An entertaining and effective outfit.
If there is an area for improvement, it’s getting results against the best in the National League. Only Ebbsfleet United took fewer points off sides in the top seven (5) and they also ranked third bottom for points collected from top half teams (17). However, they finished 10th, which means they were pretty good against the rest. They collected 47 points against bottom half sides, only bettered by the top two while their 19 points against the bottom four was the fifth best record in the league.
What Happens Next?
That’s a tough question to answer.
As with many clubs punching above their weight, the answers that immediately comes to mind relate to reality hitting them and a dip forthcoming. But this lot have shown time and again that they don’t care for outside noise and narratives. And why should they?
Andy Peaks has signed a full-time contract, ensuring some stability within the management team while it’s highly likely they will retain the core of last season’s squad – Singh, Tonks, Hollis and Digie are all signed up at the time of writing. And that is important given there will be a natural turnover of playing staff.
But improving on a 10th place finish while having one of the smaller budgets in the division isn’t going to be easy. I have to assume the most important aim is avoiding relegation with anything more a well-earned bonus.
Wealdstone
Position: 20th
Record: P 46; W 13 D 14 L 19; F 56 A 76 GD –20; Pts 53
Most Starts: Enzio Boldewijn (41)
Top Goalscorer: Alex Reid (16)
Most Assists: Max Kretzschmar (9)
Clean Sheets: 7
Discipline: Craig Eastmond (7Y 2R)
Pre-season Prediction: 17th
I’ve been pretty consistent all summer about Wealdstone going down. And the longer the summer went on, the more I got cold feet about that decision. I have reservations around Taylor, I must confess. But I see it going one of two ways for him – he either shows he can give Wealdstone a platform to perform or they replace him with somebody who proves that. The back three is strong, they have clear outlets out wide, huge experience through the spine and enough direct threats to cause problems. Aside from Taylor, I have concerns around consistency of the starting XI meaning we could see peaks and troughs. I think Wealdstone will have enough.
Mid-season Prediction
Wealdstone are a side I’ve had my eye on in the race to go down. Their fixture list and general performance give me reason to believe they’ve got an excellent chance of survival and though I have concerns about their ability to replace Reid and the depth of their midfield and attack, I’m siding with them avoiding the drop.
The Reality
Woof. They had enough... just. Though I can’t deny that this feels like a classic case of predicting the right result despite getting the working out wrong.
Unsurprisingly, Wealdstone had issues with selection. Only Enzio Boldewijn started more than 35 league matches – and he played virtually every outfield role – while only six players managed more than 26 starts. But so many of their issues around consistency arose during the first half of the season when Matt Taylor was still in charge.
The Stones found themselves in 23rd by mid-October having won just one of their opening 14 matches, a 1-0 win over AFC Fylde. They used a high number of different shapes, introduced a raft of new signings, saw a constant change in personnel. Their underlying numbers weren't good defensively but there was big underperformance in the final third. Enter Alex Reid.
The Stones would collect 15 points from the next nine, taking them out of the relegation zone having scored 19 goals. Reid scored in six of his eight starts during that run and it was no surprise to see some relative consistency form in terms of shape and personnel too. The fixture list was favourable on paper, but this was a big shot in the arm and their underlying numbers improved with it.
On 23rd January, the Stones announced that Matt Taylor has moved to Solihull Moors to link up with old friend Stephen Ward. It’s fair to say that fans weren’t entirely upset by the news. Meanwhile, Alex Reid returned having failed to impress at Oldham. A few players were moved on during January while Luca Gunter, Connor McAvoy and Harrison Sohna entered the fray. And Neil Gibson was appointed as manager – a left-field choice for sure.
It didn’t start great. Three home matches, one point, a 4-0 thumping by Gateshead. Business picked up, however, and from 8th February, Wealdstone were a top seven side. The club backed Gibson to make a couple of punchy signings with Mustapha Carayol, Will Randall and Tyler Walked joining the club. He was brave in ousting loan keeper Gunter for Dante Baptiste. And yet despite number of changes made, it’s fair to say that Gibson was able to find some consistency in shape while getting the best out of players such as Reid and the fast-developing Kallum Cesay.
They won three in a week during February, earned three huge 1-0 victories across March and April, produced an almighty comeback from three-down against Eastleigh and collected four points from Forest Green Rovers and Barnet. The thumpings on the road (4-1, 4-1, 3-1, 3-0, 2-0 and 3-0) did little for their goal difference but the brave style was generally paying off and left them with a simple solution on final day: win, and you survive. It wasn’t a contest. They hosted FC Halifax Town and were 3-0 up within 25 minutes, running all over a much-changed outfit to secure their survival.
An interesting campaign to look back on. The club took gambles in the selection of their managers and put money down to ensure their survival with some big-name additions. It proved successful and in the short-term, that is the most important results – every time a part-time outfit survives in the National League, it is an achievement to be celebrated. And yet, you sense this is a year from which the ownership will learn plenty from.
The Stats
It perhaps says plenty about Wealdstone and their performance over the season that they didn’t rank too high or low in many metrics, whether tangible or intangible. They weren’t a good or bad team, they just couldn’t nail a style or run of form consistently to avoid being dragged into the battle at the bottom.
Goals conceded was the big issue. Their 76 in the against column was the fourth highest and it didn’t help that they were so often coming from behind, having the third worst first-half record (they led at half-time on just nine occasions) and trailing for the most amount of minutes (35.5%). They also ranked second for most penalties conceded (9).
But then what do you expect when the team is regularly chopping and changing? Wealdstone used a whopping 42 players, the most outside of Gateshead and Ebbsfleet United (who had a number of issues highlighted during the campaign) and the Stones never fielded the same back three for more than three games running consecutively. While injuries will have played a part, it’s not a sustainable way of going about things.
What Happens Next?
More change. Wealdstone were very open about their situation, announcing the departure of Neil Gibson and Lee Jones due to the pair’s challenge of being a full-time management team that couldn’t locate to Ruislip permanently while also having to reduce the budget for the new season for long-term sustainability reasons.
Sam Cox has returned to the club, this time as permanent first-team manager after a brief interim spell keeping the club in the division in 2023/24, and the challenge is evident – find some stability while aligning with the processes that have stood the club in good stead over recent years.
There is a lot of work to do. At the time of writing (20th June), a number of first-team players are still negotiating deals while there has been no official announcement of his coaching team. The long-serving Alex Dyer and exciting youngster Kallum Cesay are the two most notable departures to date.
It’s hard not to suggest the obvious, which is that survival is the aim for Wealdstone, but if they can continue to play a decent brand of football and develop some talent along the way, it will be all the more enjoyable. Cox has coaching credentials behind him, knows the club and chairman very well and maybe that is what they need at this moment.
Woking
Position: 15th
Record: P 46; W 13 D 19 L 14; F 52 A 59 GD –7; Pts 58
Most Starts: Will Jaaskelainen (44)
Top Goalscorer: Harry Beautyman (10)
Most Assists: Dale Gorman (8)
Clean Sheets: 10
Discipline: Dale Gorman (18Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 16th
I like Doyle, I like the early business, I like what I saw last season. I’m confident that Doyle will get his messages across and we will see a team with leadership and quality, built from a fairly solid base. But it’s hard to ignore the number of changes to the squad coupled with off-field issues that leave the recruitment feeling a little unfinished – particularly in attack. While there is confidence a takeover will happen, there will likely be some short-term pain that follows given the reported debt and cashflow issues. I want to base this prediction on the football as much as I can and hope the financial concerns don’t escalate further. Doyle will get his ideas across and he doesn’t strike me as somebody that will look for the excuses that others may in the situation. However, he is likely to be fielding an XI with square pegs fitting round holes at times and they may lack the natural balance and quality to carry out what he wants on a consistent basis.
Mid-season Prediction
The appointment of Ardley makes me confident Woking survive. I don’t think it will be pretty and he, the players and fans may endure short-term pain as far as style is concerned, but I think he will identify the leaders in his team, players who possess proven quality at National League level, and work around them leading to an improvement in results.
The Reality
The early business was positive with some big-name additions such as Dale Gorman, Harry Beautyman and Cian Harries but the moment off-field issues came to light, it was apparent that Woking were going to have to make do with whatever they could muster and would spend much of the season in catch-up mode.
The Cards started positively enough, winning four of their first eight, keeping four clean sheets and managing to find relative consistency but issues quickly came to light for a team lacking depth across the squad and quality or consistency in attack as Michael Doyle tried to mesh his preferred high pressing, high possession style with the pragmatism necessary given the quality of player available.
What followed was a lot of chopping and changing of personnel (2.93 changes per match), shape and ideas with players playing numerous roles and gambles being taken to improve the attack, few of which paid off as they ran through 14 matches, winning one and scoring just 11 goals. For the most part, Woking were competitive but a run of six matches, four defeats and one goal scored saw the end for Doyle.
By that point, a new ownership group had agreed terms to take on the club and Jody Brown had been appointed their new Director of Football. Doyle’s former boss Neal Ardley was given the reins and some important additions at both ends of the pitch paid dividends as the likes of Inih Effiong, Junior Morias, Aiden O’Brien, Sam Ashford and Chin Okoli arrived while Harries and Charley Kendall were sold.
As expected, it wasn’t a pretty finish to the season but Woking found a way to grind out results and achieve survival with relative comfort. Across Ardley’s 24 league matches in charge, they won eight (six at home), drew 13 and lost just three, two of those being against York City and Barnet. The loss at York was the only game in which an Ardley team conceded more than two goals while they conceded one or zero on 18 occasions. They also reached the FA Trophy semi-final too, losing to local rivals Aldershot Town in controversial fashion.
Woking’s season will be seen in different ways by different people. The squad always contained high calibre National League footballers so spending so much time closer to the bottom four than the top seven can be cited as a disappointing performance. On the other hand, the off-field issues and need to play catch-up were unhelpful and these things will always play a bigger role than us outsiders may realise.
To call it a success might be too far but Woking remain in the National League and finish the season in better shape as a club and as a football team than they started and that is enough reason to be positive.
The Stats
As above, Woking drew a whopping 13 of 24 league matches under Neal Ardley, so it will be no surprise they topped the list for most draws, finishing up with 19 overall. Their wins and losses often depended on whether they were home or away, their ten wins helping them to the 7th best home record in the division while their three wins on the road was the joint second fewest in the league. They achieved 0.78 points per game more at home than away, the second highest in the division.
In the above section, I spoke of Woking’s issues beginning the season and a lack of quality in attack. Well, Woking had the second worst first half record (9-19-18) and scored the second fewest first half goals (17). They were one of two teams not to score four or more goals and they scored three or more goals on four occasions (joint third lowest).
What they were was tenacious (joint second most fouls per match) and able to get results in the games they needed to. They managed just one win against teams in the top eight and sit 5th for percentage of points accrued against top half teams but they sit third for percentage of points accrued against the bottom four having been unbeaten against such opposition. They lost just two of 18 against teams below them in the league table and won eight of ten against the bottom 11 at home.
What Happens Next?
At the time of writing, Woking have waved goodbye to 16 of the players that finished last season, including loanees, suggesting we are going to see quite the turnover at the Kingfield.
The additions so far have been young lads looking to make the step up, a strategy that has also seen them sign Joshua Osude as well as given Tariq Hinds, Tunji Akinola and Matt Ward new contracts. There is plenty of experience in the building to work around and Ardley has previous in this sort of environment with his work at Solihull Moors excellent.
The expectation has to be an improvement on a 15th place finish now all parties have had time to get their feet under the table and my immediate belief is that they are going to manage that. A top seven finish? There are definitely places available, is what I will say, but let’s see how recruitment goes.
Yeovil Town
Position: 18th
Record: P 46; W 15 D 11 L 20; F 51 A 60 GD –9; Pts 56
Most Starts: Charlie Cooper (36)
Top Goalscorer: Brett McGavin & Aaron Jarvis (7)
Most Assists: Ciaran McGuckin & Sam Pearson (4)
Clean Sheets: 12
Discipline: Jake Wannell (8Y 2R)
Pre-season Prediction: 18th
I remain frustrated for Yeovil Town fans given the off-field noise but it seems apparent that on the pitch, Mark Cooper has attentions focused and a group that are together. There are leaders, there is reliability, there is a team that have learned how to win football matches regularly and they have a shape that enables them to play the sort of football Cooper has a reputation for playing. It’s all fairly positive from where I sit and it means I have confidence they won’t be too worried about relegation. They sit 18th on account of the step up being a big one for any club – no promoted side has finished in the top half since Stockport County and Woking managed it in 2019-20 – and the squad just generally not being as strong as others at the level.
Mid-season Prediction
Cooper is a very experienced football manager at this point in his career and he will know exactly what he needs in order to progress Yeovil a step further. The challenge is whether he can get what he needs on a modest budget – they have found themselves relying on youngsters stepping in on loan to date. They’ve had an excellent start and I see no reason why they can’t finish in the top half. I do think they will fall short of a top seven place, however, just on account of lacking the extra bit of quality that allows them to collect more results against the better outfits in the division.
The Reality
From 10th August until 20th December, Yeovil Town were the 8th best team in the division, level on points with 7th place Altrincham having won ten of their opening 22 matches. From 20th December until the end of the season, Yeovil Town were the 22nd best team in the division, losing 12 of their final 22 matches. And on a basic level, that sums up their campaign.
However, as is often the case, there is far more to it and so much of that was self-inflicted.
Yeovil arrived back in the National League with relatively positive vibes from the outside. There were some concerns over owner and manager but they were National League South champions, had a good core remaining at the club and they started the season well. The underlying numbers weren’t bad. There was a seven-match unbeaten run as part of a run of 11 matches that saw the team concede just five goals. Things were going well.
Then came change. And lots of change. Injuries were unhelpful (not one player started more than 36 league games). Some loan recalls. A sale or two. It happens. But from Boxing Day onwards, Yeovil made at least 11 new signings. Some players played various roles. A few were reportedly transfer listed.
Meanwhile, things really hit boiling point with the ownership. Martin Hellier had put money down but was alienating the fanbase with his actions away from the field as banning orders started being dished out like confetti to anybody who spoke up against him, including popular fan group Gloverscast. Whether Mark Cooper was simply managing up or was friendly with Hellier, or somewhere in between, remains unknown to me but his public aligning with the owner did him few favours with fans. The cracks previously papered over were once again visible to all.
However, Mark Cooper is 56 years of age and has over 20 years’ managerial experience and he showcased why as the season progressed. He came away from his preferred possession heavy style to move towards a more direct 4-3-3 owing to the players he had available and simplifying the game. Goals were hard to come by but a run of ten points from five games was enough to secure their safety.
An 18th place finish is lower than all involved at Yeovil would have liked but given they were just two points off 11th, it’s largely semantics. It’s more about what the 18th place finish represents, which is a big fall during the second half of the season as wounds old and new opened up and left a sour taste in the mouth. Few in Somerset will have finished the season feeling positive about their future.
The Stats
The statistic that became the talking point of Yeovil Town’s season was their record against the good and bad sides. As of 25th January, they had picked up 89% of their league points total against bottom half teams, earning all ten victories against the bottom 11. By the end of the season, that figure lowered to 73%, but was the joint highest in the division alongside Tamworth. The 20 points they picked up against the bottom four was the most outside of the top two. However, the 15 points earned against top half teams was the lowest outside of Ebbsfleet United.
Two key reasons for their struggles were goals and how they started and finished matches.
Starting with goals and only Ebbsfleet United, AFC Fylde and FC Halifax Town scored fewer. They failed to score in 16 matches, joint third highest. For many of the positives of their general style, they ranked third for fewest box entries per touch of the ball, which was unhelpful. They also earned just one penalty (joint fewest), a statistic I’m sure Mark Cooper will have plenty to say about.
As for the flow of their matches, they scored four and conceded 12 in the first 15 minutes of matches (only Ebbsfleet United and Solihull Moors performed worst) and their record at the end of games was nine scored and 17 conceded (only AFC Fylde had a bigger goal swing). A lot of those goals conceded were important: only Dagenham and Redbridge gave up more points in the final 15 minutes of matches (13). Perhaps discipline played a role – no side collected more red cards than Yeovil’s seven.
What Happens Next?
The season finishes and as May ends, the club announce that Prabhu Srinivasan has completed a takeover of the club, acquiring all shares previously held by Martin Hellier. Hallelujah.
The PR has been fine so far with the new ownership group and Stuart Robins working together to improve relations and be more open. There has been the big change relating to where the football team will now train, moving to Bristol. Mark Cooper remains in charge. While a lot is due to get sorted away from the pitch, it appears as though it’s business as normal on it.
Does this all work out for the best? Who knows. Yeovil Town are rarely far away from controversy. If nothing else, it’s a fresh start and an opportunity to start the season with owners, management, players and fans more united in what they want for the club. That is a step in the right direction.
York City
Position: 2nd
Record: P 46; W 29 D 9 L 8; F 95 A 42 GD +53; Pts 96
Most Starts: Callum Howe (46)
Top Goalscorer: Ollie Pearce (31)
Most Assists: Ollie Pearce (10)
Clean Sheets: 21
Discipline: Ollie Pearce (7Y 1R)
Pre-season Prediction: 10th
Another summer of change and I’m far more positive about York City this time around. However, The Minstermen finished 20th last season, so turning that into a top seven finish would be a huge achievement for Hinshelwood and his players. The process of moving players out will continue while five of their first nine signings are either stepping up a level or moving into full-time football. It means that I foresee some peaks and troughs during a campaign that will see the club wanting to be ambitious but hopefully understanding the need to build some stability. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they land themselves in the top seven and even higher than that, but I’m going to be cautious in my prediction and see where the season takes them.
Mid-season Prediction
Like others in the top five, the question is whether York will win the title. Having backed Barnet, I have to say no by default. But I’m not ruling them out whatsoever and I’m confident they are finishing in the top three. Given they survived on the final day last season, a top three finish would be some achievement. A title? One of the best turnarounds in National League history, regardless of noise around the budget.
The Reality
I was a little too cautious in the summer, apparently.
The thinking, as above, was simply the scale of change. A manager in his first full-time job, an overhauling of the recruitment team, a raft of new additions, a group of players remaining that were signed by various recruitment teams, managers and even their owner. All the while, the Ugglas had spent a pretty penny or two and the expectations were big.
The perfect response was beginning the season with one defeat in 17, averaging around two goals per game and topping the division. Adam Hinshelwood had been backed in the summer and, partly thanks to the help of numerous ex-Worthing players that he had managed, was coaching the free-flowing, attacking style of football he had made his name coaching at a lower level. His team were playing with confidence, scoring goals and entered 2025 as National League leaders.
So why did they finish second? Across 22 matches played between November and late March, York conceded 2 or more goals on ten occasions, losing seven and drawing one. They wound up winning two less and losing two more than Barnet. People point to the addition of Josh Stones (which is unfair in itself) but the signs regarding the loss of defensive control they would occasionally inhibit were already there and York couldn’t quite tighten up quickly enough to avoid those losses.
With the title race seemingly done, the Minstermen switched back on. Across their final eight matches they won seven, scored 25 goals, conceded five and set themselves up nicely for the play-offs. Just over two weeks later, they were comfortably beaten in their semi-final at the York Community Stadium by Oldham Athletic, a team that finished 23 points below them in the table. Season over. Brutal.
It was a disappointing finish to what had otherwise been an excellent campaign. People reference the money and while it helps, it doesn’t provide a guarantee. Credit is warranted for a season performance that saw the club improve their league position by 18 places, win 17 more matches, lose nine fewer and turn a goal difference of –14 into +53. From the brink of relegation to title contenders.
The Stats
Largely thanks to Barnet, York City ranked second in a lot of areas. They are as followed: most wins (29); most goals (95, at least 19 more than any side not named Barnet); fewest conceded (42); best home record (16-4-3); most scored at home (57); first half record (22-17-7); second half record (24-15-7); points lost after 75th minute (2); goals per game total at home (3.35); games in which they scored 3 or more goals (15); clean sheets (21); games in which they conceded 3 or more goals (4); most time leading (38.2%); least time trailing (16.5%); best record after conceding first (1.07 PPG); xG; xGD; xGD overperformance; most points taken from the top 7 (22) and top half (39) sides. They even wound up finishing second for best average attendance (6.01k).
Still, they topped some areas. They had the best away record (13-5-5) and conceded the fewest goals away from home (22). No side scored more second half goals, scored more in the final 30 minutes of matches (49, the most by 16 goals), won more points after the 75th minute (13) or had a better record in the final 10 minutes of matches (24 scored, six conceded). No side scored in more matches (41) or won to nil in more matches (41%). No side had a higher possession average (63.5%) or a better PPDA against and they also ranked first for quality of chance per shot. Finally, York had a perfect record against the bottom five – unmatched.
Finally, York ranked third as followed: most away goals (38); most first half goals (38); most goals per game total (2.98) and most penalties (10).
All in all, not a bad side.
What Happens Next?
York City enter 2025-26 amongst the favourites for the league title.
The Minstermen have spent 16 of the last 20 seasons in non-league – this is all a generation of fans have known supporting a club that spent the previous 70+ seasons as a Football League outfit. There is some desperation to finally come away from non-league football and return to a level many believe they ought to be as a minimum.
The signs are positive. Adam Hinshelwood remains, as do much of the squad he managed to second place. Early additions show that they aren’t messing around as they bid to close the gap on first, adding recent title winners Ash Palmer and Ollie Banks, as well as Altrincham star Alex Newby. There is no question around their financial clout, so it’s all about whether they make the minor improvements necessary to take that next step.
As of 22nd June, they’re my title favourites.